钢材需求变化跟踪：产业供需双弱，驱动或来自宏观

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its driving force may come from the macro - level.权益表现偏好，短期政策刺激概率有限，中长期需要需求端发力以保证经济走出通缩螺旋 [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1总量矛盾 3.1.1 权益表现与政策刺激 - The equity performance is favorable, and the probability of short - term policy stimulus is limited [5] 3.1.2 资金供给 - In March 2025, the scale of ultra - long - term special sovereign bonds was 1.3 trillion yuan (300 billion yuan was for debt roll - over and 500 billion yuan was for supplementing bank capital). On May 20, 2025, the loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year, with the 1 - year LPR dropping from 3.1% to 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR dropping from 3.6% to 3.5%. On May 15, 2025, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% deposit reserve ratio), and the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies was lowered by 5 percentage points [11] 3.1.3 资金需求 - Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and other aspects are presented to show the situation of capital demand [13][14] 3.2 地产 3.2.1 销售 - The real estate market is not stable, housing prices are falling, and the decline in new home transactions is expanding. The growth rate of spot - home sales has slowed down, and the growth rate of unsold housing area has also slowed down [18][22][26] 3.2.2 新开工与土地成交 - The decline in new construction starts has expanded [27][28] 3.3 基建 3.3.1 投资增速 - The "anti - involution" policy restricts supply, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has declined [29][30] 3.3.2 资金 - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds come from quasi - fiscal policies, such as the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 for "two - major" construction and the 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bonds in March 2025 [31][33][36] 3.3.3 项目 - Data on the PMI of the construction industry and the investment amount of major project starts are presented [38][39] 3.4 制造业 3.4.1 投资与利润 - The "anti - involution" policy restricts supply, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has declined, and industrial profits have expanded [40] 3.4.2 相关指标 - Data on power generation, coal consumption, freight volume, and price differences are presented [43][44][45] 3.4.3 主要工业品产销 - Production and sales data of major industrial products such as automobiles, white goods, and excavators are presented [47][48] 3.4.4 生产企业订单和销售 - Data on the planned and actual production of home appliances and their domestic sales are presented [50] 3.4.5 家电产销数据 - The home appliance industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model. Structural factors include domestic sales and exports, and leading indicators include real estate completion and US housing sales [55] 3.4.6 汽车产销数据 - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model. Structural factors include different types of vehicle production and sales, and leading indicators are enterprise orders from micro - level research [63] 3.4.7 机械产销数据 - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model. The export proportion of sub - categories is increasing year by year, and leading indicators are enterprise orders from micro - level research [71] 3.4.8 船舶产销数据 - The shipbuilding industry is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes in the long - term, supply - demand pattern and renewal cycle in the medium - term, and transportation efficiency in the short - term. Currently, shipyards have abundant orders on hand and new orders are growing rapidly [76] 3.5 钢材直接出口 - Exports are price - driven, with production scheduling leading by about one month and port departure being synchronous. High - frequency data such as port departure volume and price differences are presented [77][81][83] 3.6 钢材需求 - Demand has entered the off - season, and the industrial chain has shifted to a pattern of weak supply and demand. Data on apparent consumption, spot transactions, and price difference structures are presented [86][95][97]