银河期货：多晶硅：关注平台公司落地情况，逢高沽空工业硅，区间震荡，高抛低吸

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of the platform company and sell on rallies [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of high - selling and low - buying [1]. Core Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon was in a tight balance, but the silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the polysilicon futures may rise, but the upside is limited due to pessimistic demand expectations. For now, it's better to wait and see [4]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight balance. The price is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton, with limited downside and upside space in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - From a supply - demand perspective, in November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared to October, translating to a polysilicon demand of about 118,000 tons. The polysilicon production was 115,000 tons, resulting in a tight balance. There were about 270,000 tons of upstream inventory, approximately 160,000 tons of downstream raw material inventory, and about 45,000 tons of warehouse receipt and trader inventory. The silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure due to increased hoarding risks and cash - flow needs of some manufacturers. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the futures may rise, but the upside is limited. Currently, it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - Trading strategies: For the short term, wait for more certain opportunities; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [6]. Industrial Silicon - Supply - demand situation: This week, the DMC weekly production was 49,200 tons, a 1.03% increase; the polysilicon weekly production was 27,500 tons, a 3.24% decrease; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%, unchanged; the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 60.6%, unchanged. The industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [7]. - Trading logic: After the silicone industry meeting, there was no expected production cut, and the industrial silicon market remained in a tight balance. Factories were reluctant to sell below 9,400 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of the price was high. The basis was at a relatively high level, limiting the downside of the futures price. Without a further reduction in supply, the upside momentum was also insufficient. It is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton [7]. - Trading strategies: Trade in the range with high - selling and low - buying; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market Trends: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell, with the main contract closing at 8,960 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices generally increased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - Downstream Demand: This week, the DMC production increased by 1.03% to 49,200 tons, the polysilicon production decreased by 3.24% to 27,500 tons, the primary aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 59.8%, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 60.6% [14]. - Production: This week, the industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The total number of open furnaces was 261, a decrease of 3. An enterprise in Yili stopped production, and the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased. There are no expected changes in Xinjiang, but some furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan may stop, and the production is expected to decrease next week [25]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [26]. - Related Product Prices: This week, the industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly; the DMC and terminal product prices of organic silicon also increased; the industrial silicon raw material prices remained stable [31][36][48]. - Downstream Industry Data: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates increased slightly; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate strengthened [42][45]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Price Trends: This week, silicon wafers and batteries saw significant price drops. The polysilicon prices were relatively stable, while the prices of silicon wafers and batteries decreased compared to the end of September and last weekend [53][54]. - Component Data: Recently, component enterprises started to implement the spirit of the association meeting and gradually raised component quotes. In November, some component enterprises reduced production, but terminal demand provided some support. The component production schedule was expected to be 46GW. European component inventory increased to 35.4GW, and domestic manufacturers' inventory was 30.3GW, at a moderately low level [62]. - Battery Data: Battery export demand was good, but specialized battery manufacturers' inventory reached 10.21GW, showing obvious inventory accumulation and pressuring battery prices. In November, the component production schedule decreased, and the battery production schedule was adjusted to 54GW [63]. - Silicon Wafer Data: This week, the silicon wafer enterprises' operating rate decreased, and the weekly production dropped to 12.78GW. Silicon wafers were produced on - demand, with an inventory of 18.72GW. The November production schedule was 59GW, a 1GW decrease from October [68]. - Polysilicon Data: This week, polysilicon production decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 271,000 tons. In November, Tongwei planned to gradually stop production in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total annual production suspension scale of 370,000 tons. Its production is expected to decrease by 20,000 - 25,000 tons compared to October and another 10,000 tons in December. Some new capacities of Asian Silicon, Daquan Energy, and Xinte Energy are ramping up, while GCL Technology has a certain production cut plan. Overall, the November production is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons compared to October [73].