行业龙头上调业绩指引，户外行业景气度不减

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - Leading outdoor brands, such as Amer Sports and ANTA, have shown impressive performance since 2025, with multiple upward revisions to their fiscal year earnings guidance. Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with adjusted gross margins of 58.7% and EBIT margins of 5.5%, exceeding market expectations [4][5]. - The domestic outdoor market is in a high-growth phase, with a CAGR of 13.8% for high-performance outdoor apparel from 2019 to 2024. The online growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 were 56%, 8%, and 14%, consistently outperforming the overall apparel market [9][12]. - The outdoor apparel segment is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with no absolute leader. The top ten brands hold only a 27.2% market share, indicating significant opportunities for innovation and brand evolution within the industry [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Companies Continuously Adjusting Revenue Guidance - Amer Sports has consistently delivered high growth and stable profit expansion, with significant revenue and profit guidance revisions for FY25. In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 29.7% and an adjusted EPS of $0.33, surpassing market expectations [5][8]. - ANTA also exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with net sales of CHF794.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, and a gross margin of 65.7% [8]. 2. High Growth Rate and Low Penetration Rate Indicating Ample Market Space - The outdoor market in China is experiencing a high growth cycle, with over 400 million participants in outdoor sports, but a participation rate of only about 28%, significantly lower than the over 50% in mature markets [9][11]. 3. Expected Continued High Industry Sentiment from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 - The outdoor apparel segment is viewed as a high-growth sub-sector within the apparel industry, with growth rates of 56%, 8%, and 14% in the first three quarters of 2025, and an increase to 20% in October [12]. - The cold winter forecast and an extended sales window due to the late Chinese New Year in 2026 are expected to positively impact sales, particularly for winter apparel [12].