华源晨会精粹20251124-20251124

Fixed Income - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December remains uncertain, with a 71% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 29% chance of maintaining the current rate [2][7] - In October, broad funds significantly increased their holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, with a total bond custody scale rising by 1.31 trillion yuan to 176.8 trillion yuan [7] - The bond market is currently viewed positively, with expectations of a downward trend in bond yields [9] REITs - Recent performance of REITs has shown differentiation, with stable cash flow assets like consumer and rental housing outperforming others [10][11] - The average first-day increase for newly listed REITs in 2025 is 24.76%, significantly higher than previous years, but the expectation for single new issuance returns has decreased due to high subscription enthusiasm [13][14] - New data center REITs have performed well recently, with notable increases in their stock prices [14] Credit Analysis - Credit spreads have shown slight fluctuations, with most industry spreads remaining stable within 5 basis points [15][16] - The issuance rates for AA city investment bonds and industrial bonds have decreased significantly, falling within the range of 2.6% to 2.8% [16][18] - Investors are advised to pay attention to 3-5 year credit bonds and perpetual bonds due to their potential investment opportunities [18] Metals and New Materials - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a recent drop in prices [20][21] - Lithium prices have entered a new cycle of growth, with a significant increase in demand and a reduction in inventory levels [23] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply situation, despite recent changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [24] Technology and Data Centers - Over 50% of data center projects are expected to adopt liquid cooling technology by 2025, driven by increasing demand in sectors like internet and finance [26][27] - The Chinese liquid cooling server market is projected to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 67% [27] - A total of 11 companies in the liquid cooling server supply chain have been identified, indicating a growing industry focus [27] Media and AI - Google's release of Gemini 3 marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities, integrating multi-modal understanding and enhancing user interaction [32][33] - Alibaba's AI application "Qianwen APP" quickly rose to the top of the App Store rankings, highlighting the competitive landscape in AI applications [33] - The AI narrative is evolving, with a focus on applications in education, e-commerce, and content production, suggesting a shift in industry dynamics [35]