2025年研究成果综述暨2026年转债年度策略：牛市中继，“绩”中寻机

Market Review - The equity market has steadily risen, leading to a double boost in convertible bond parity valuation [5][20] - AI has been a continuous theme throughout the year, with a mid-year shift towards anti-involution, resulting in phase-specific performances in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and finance [9][20] - The average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds has been analyzed, showing a support for price recovery due to the exit of bottom-tier stocks and the influx of capital [12][20] Trend Analysis - The current bull market is seen as a continuation, with a focus on leveraging subjective advantages to capture changes in performance inflection points [5][20] - The passive investment trend is deepening, with the amount of convertible bonds in products determining market outcomes [16][20] - The relationship between equity and debt markets is crucial, with low interest rates in the bond market and a "small rise" era in the stock market indicating ongoing bullish potential [27][20] Convertible Bond Strategies - Traditional price-based strategies have limited space, with bonds that have a "debt floor" lacking room for growth [15][20] - The "downward adjustment speculation" strategy benefits from issuers lowering conversion prices, enhancing conversion value and bond prices [15][20] - The expansion of convertible bond ETFs and their correlation with market performance highlight the impact of passive investment on market aesthetics [20][20] Investor Behavior - Public funds have become the largest holders of convertible bonds, increasing their holdings significantly, while other institutions have seen declines due to market contraction [43][20] - The shift in investor structure indicates a growing preference for absolute returns, with insurance and brokerage firms reducing their positions during rapid price increases [40][20]