Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue exceeding guidance and a notable increase in performance compared to previous quarters. The hotel revenue for Q3 reached approximately 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [11] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in Q4, with projected revenue growth of 2-6% and domestic growth of 3-7%. The anticipated growth in franchise revenue is between 17-21% year-on-year [14][15] - The company is focusing on optimizing revenue management and strengthening direct sales channels, which has led to a slight recovery in domestic RevPAR, with a mixed RevPAR of 256 yuan, down only 0.1% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue was 6.96 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous guidance of 2-6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase year-on-year [11] - The company’s domestic same-store RevPAR decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, showing a gradual recovery compared to earlier quarters [12] Membership and Revenue Management - The number of members in the company's loyalty program exceeded 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Member bookings increased by 19.7%, accounting for 74% of total room nights [12] - The company has successfully implemented revenue management strategies, resulting in a positive year-on-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) of 0.9% [12] Expansion and Profitability - The company opened 2,038 new stores and closed 483, resulting in a net increase of 1,555 stores. The total number of operating hotels reached 12,600, with a market share estimated at 11% [13] - Franchise revenue and gross operating profit (GOP) increased by 27.4% and 28.6% year-on-year, respectively, while direct store revenue and GOP decreased by 5.5% and 24.7% [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable or slight increase in domestic RevPAR in Q4, with overall core indicators expected to maintain a healthy development trend [14] - The management expects to exceed the initial target of opening 2,300 new hotels by the end of the year, supported by improved signing and conversion rates [13] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth projections for 2025-2027, expecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 5.8%, and 6.2%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 4.44 billion, 5.17 billion, and 5.78 billion yuan for the same period [15]
华住集团-S（01179）：Q3国内RevPAR拐点显现，看好龙头优势扩张与周期预期修复