2026年A股市场投资展望：变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来

Group 1: 2025 A-Share Market Review - As of November 14, 2025, the overall A-Share index increased by 26.58%, with the ChiNext index and STAR 50 leading at 45.29% and 37.65% respectively [6] - Among 31 primary industries, 30 saw an increase in closing prices compared to the end of the previous year, with non-ferrous metals, communication, and electric equipment leading with gains exceeding 50% [4][19] - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 3.40% [4][19] Group 2: 2026 Investment Environment Analysis - The 2026 investment environment is characterized by a stable macroeconomic policy in China, with expected resilience in economic growth and a potential recovery in inflation from low levels [4][36] - The international landscape remains uncertain, with geopolitical risks and trade order challenges impacting global economic growth [36][40] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide a clear development blueprint, enhancing market confidence in China's long-term economic resilience [4][36] Group 3: Market Trend Predictions for 2026 - The A-Share market is anticipated to benefit from improved liquidity, with the current valuation being relatively reasonable compared to global equity markets [4][36] - Earnings growth is expected to become a key focus, driven by the deepening of China's economic transformation and the continuous development of emerging industries [4][36] - The PPI decline is expected to narrow, potentially leading to an increase in corporate profit margins [4][36] Group 4: Style Judgments for 2026 - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform well, particularly in the context of a favorable environment for risk appetite driven by the Fed's anticipated rate cuts and the upward trend in emerging industries [4][36] - Growth stocks are projected to continue outperforming value stocks in the first three quarters of 2026, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [4][36] - In the fourth quarter, as the U.S. midterm elections approach, market risk appetite may shift, potentially favoring value stocks [4][36] Group 5: Structural Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create significant policy dividends and industry opportunities, focusing on two main lines: new productivity driven by technology and the "anti-involution" policy promoting supply-demand optimization [4][36] - Key sectors to watch include artificial intelligence, new energy, and quantum technology, which are highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][36] - The consumer sector is seen as a potential area for investment, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4][36]