策略周报：海外流动性有望修复，A股震荡反弹可期-20251124

Group 1: Overseas Macro Trends and Strategies - Nvidia's earnings exceeded expectations, but stock price volatility increased, indicating a growing divide in AI investments [13][20] - December Fed rate cut expectations have become more divergent, initially dropping to 30% before rising to 70% after dovish comments from Fed officials [13][20] - The focus is on liquidity recovery, particularly the timing of TGA account disbursements, which could alleviate current liquidity pressures [13][17] Group 2: Domestic Macro Trends and Strategies - In October, fiscal spending declined, and LPR remained unchanged, with expectations for coordinated monetary and fiscal efforts at year-end [29][30] - A-shares are expected to rebound after previous adjustments, with a focus on undervalued technology and low-positioned consumer sectors [32][34] Group 3: Market Review - The overall A-share index declined, with small-cap stocks performing worse than large-cap stocks; the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively [36][38] - All sectors experienced declines, with banking, media, and food and beverage sectors showing relative resilience, while power, comprehensive, and chemical sectors led the declines [37][40] Group 4: Fund Sentiment - A-share market activity decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 186.5 billion yuan, indicating a shift in industry rotation [45][52] - Domestic panic sentiment slightly increased, while overseas panic levels rose significantly, with the VIX index climbing by 18.15% [54][55] - Public funds saw a slight increase in new issuance, with significant net inflows into ETFs focusing on securities, semiconductors, and real estate [57][61] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors with significant price corrections, such as robotics, military, and AI applications, as well as low-positioned consumer sectors like food and beverage, social services, and home appliances [34][36] - The approval of new hard technology ETFs is expected to attract incremental capital into the hard technology sector [57]