资产配置快评2025年11月24日：全球风险资产波动加大——总量创辩第116期

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Production investment growth is a key factor affecting mid-term price equilibrium, with a significant decline observed in manufacturing investment, which has dropped by 15% compared to the peak in May[11] - October CPI rose unexpectedly by 0.2%, influenced by food prices and gold, but this increase is not expected to be sustainable[12] - Essential consumption and service consumption are showing slight recovery, with essential consumption growth at 4.2% in October, up from 3.4%[15] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - Global risk asset volatility is influenced by fluctuating expectations of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Japan[17] - The recent market adjustment may have reached its limit, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping below the 60-day moving average for the first time in six months[18] - Investment strategies should focus on valuation-profit matching, AI technology rebounds, and supply-constrained cyclical industries such as metals and coal[21] Group 3: Fixed Income and Insurance Sector - The bond market is experiencing a low-interest rate environment, with insurance funds showing a decrease in bond allocation to 50.3% as of Q3 2025, while stock and fund allocations have increased[41] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.8% in the short term, influenced by risk appetite and new fund sales regulations[26] - Insurance companies are likely to continue increasing equity asset allocations to enhance long-term returns, despite the pressure from rising interest rates[42]