瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply - side pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal price maintains a volatile trend, and short - term observation is recommended. [2] - The rapeseed oil market has support from the supply - side as the oil mills are basically shut down and the inventory is decreasing. But the demand is mainly rigid due to the abundant supply of soybean oil. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has declined slightly due to the weakness of palm oil, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9778 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2446 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed is 641.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.6 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan. [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 356 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 61 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 235090 lots, down 8834 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 360472 lots, up 4288 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 1412 lots, down 3130 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 7699 lots, up 2888 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3976, down 57; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7845.7 yuan/ton, down 113.9 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.05, down 0.02. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 11.53 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, down 2 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 1.25 tons, down 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 36.45 tons, down 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 1.15 tons, down 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 tons, down 171.7 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 tons, down 67.4 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.06%, up 0.36%; that of at - the - money put options is 20.06%, up 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.88%, up 1.47%; that of at - the - money put options is 14.93%, up 1.52%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.52%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.87%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.76%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On November 21 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of US soybean oil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil futures. [2] - The US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant supply in the short - term. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, but the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and China's purchase of over 1.5 million tons of US soybeans last week supports the US soybean price. [2] - The Canada - China trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term. The Canadian rapeseed export has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan to promote rapeseed export provide support. [2] - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports in November bring inventory pressure to the international oil market. [2]