有色金属海外季报：TIMAH2025Q3锡金属产销量分别环比增加6%、12%至3,985吨、3,486吨

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a tin production of 5,200 tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37% [1]. - The average selling price of tin metal for the first three quarters of 2025 was $33,596 per ton, an 8% increase compared to $31,183 per ton in the same period last year [1]. - The electronic manufacturing industry is expected to be the main driver of tin demand, with a projected increase in tin usage of 0.6% in 2025, reaching 380,160 metric tons [7]. Production and Sales Summary - In Q3 2025, the company’s tin metal production was 3,985 tons, a 16% decrease year-on-year but a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The sales volume of tin metal in Q3 2025 was 3,486 tons, reflecting a 32% year-on-year decrease but a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - Domestic refined tin sales accounted for 7% of total sales, while export sales made up 93%, with Japan and Singapore being the largest markets [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.38 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, a 22% year-on-year decrease but a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. - EBITDA for Q3 2025 was 662 billion Indonesian Rupiah, down 24% year-on-year but up 46% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was 301.93 billion Indonesian Rupiah, a 36% year-on-year decrease but a 65% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. Asset and Liability Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, total assets increased by 7% to 13.7 trillion Indonesian Rupiah compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - Total liabilities grew by 14% to 6.1 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, primarily due to increases in accounts payable and short-term bank loans [3]. - The company’s net assets stood at 7.61 trillion Indonesian Rupiah [4]. Market Outlook - The tin market is expected to remain tight due to limited supply from key producing regions, with projected tin prices in 2025 ranging from $32,254 to $34,000 per ton [7]. - The demand for tin is anticipated to be influenced by growth in electronics, semiconductors, and AI sectors, alongside macroeconomic factors such as fiscal stimulus in China and U.S. Federal Reserve policies [7].