国投期货贵金属日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The U.S. postponed the release of September's non - farm payrolls, which increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value. The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data will not be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data for reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials have significant differences in their recent statements, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President said there was still room for interest rate adjustment, increasing the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the U.S. proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, but some key terms were opposed by European allies, and multi - party negotiations will continue. Last week, NVIDIA's strong earnings initially supported the U.S. stock market, but then the U.S. stocks significantly corrected, and concerns about the bubble still exist. In the short term, there are a lot of long and short news in the market, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Situation - Ukraine - Russia Conflict: U.S. and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress"; Zelensky said the U.S. peace plan was expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe proposed a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan. U.S. and Ukraine are discussing Zelensky's visit to the U.S. this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary said Trump was pressuring Russia to end the conflict and was confident in the progress of the peace process. Trump thought November 27 was a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement [2] 3.2 Fed's Attitude - Interest Rate Policy: Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term; Collins thinks it is necessary to be cautious about a December rate cut but expects further rate cuts in the future; Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is crucial; Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" with inflation still high and the labor market generally balanced [2]