资产配置日报：等待反弹的理由-20251124

Core Insights - The market has established a foundation for a rebound after a week of adjustments, with structural risks significantly alleviated. The concentration of trading volume has decreased to around 40%, below the historical average of 45%, and the proportion of stocks with prices above their 95th historical percentile has dropped to 12%, below the historical average of 15% [2][3] - The technology sector is not expected to weaken completely, as evidenced by the rebound in tech stocks and the ongoing narrative surrounding technological advancements, such as Gemini 3 and Google's TPU, which have drawn attention to Google's supply chain [2][3] - The market currently lacks strong reasons for a significant rebound, primarily due to two prevailing concerns: the instability of the US stock market and the deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, which may hinder risk appetite recovery [2][3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.62%, with a total trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.78% [1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 8.571 billion HKD, with Alibaba receiving a net inflow of 4.066 billion HKD, and Tencent and Kuaishou receiving net inflows of 1.167 billion HKD and 819 million HKD, respectively [1] Bond Market - The bond market continues to experience low trading volumes, with the number of transactions for 10-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds declining to 220 and 972, respectively. The trading activity of 10-year government bonds has been surpassed by 7-year government bonds [4] - The overall performance of 5-7 year government bonds and local government bonds has been better, likely due to institutional behavior. Despite net redemptions in pure bond funds, the redemption pressure is not significant, primarily driven by banks seeking to secure profits as year-end approaches [4][5] Credit Market - As of late November, credit spreads across various types and maturities have compressed to very low levels, with spreads generally within the 25th percentile since 2021. This thin spread protection has led investors to reassess credit pricing, resulting in adjustments in lower-rated bonds [5] - The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern until a new catalyst emerges, with the current environment suggesting that leveraging and coupon payments may be necessary to navigate this "boring period" [5] Commodity Market - The commodity market is showing signs of mild recovery, although significant differentiation between sectors remains. Precious metals have seen reduced declines, while industrial metals have shown mixed performance [6] - The market experienced a small net inflow of 200 million yuan, contrasting with a significant net outflow of 8.5 billion yuan the previous trading day. Agricultural products and black chain indices have attracted substantial capital, while non-ferrous and new energy sectors faced reductions [6]