策略日报：反弹-20251124

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the stock market may enter a short-term adjustment phase, while the bond market is expected to show a strong oscillation in the near term. However, the long-term upward trend for A-shares is anticipated to continue, with the bond market still in a long-term downtrend [4][16]. - The target for the 30-year government bond is projected to oscillate upward to the pressure level of the annual line, with a long-term target near the low point of September 30, 2024, when policy shifted [4][16]. Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market is currently undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing on low volume but showing poor quality in the upward movement, supported only by a few sectors like military industry. The overseas risks have not been fully released, and the A-share market is expected to be weaker than the European and American markets [5][20]. - The report suggests a cautious approach for investors, recommending strategies such as "building high walls" (dividends), "storing grain" (reducing positions), and "waiting for the right moment" to buy. The A-share market has broken below the critical support level of 3920, indicating the start of a mid-term adjustment [5][20]. Group 3: U.S. Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market is entering a short-term adjustment phase, particularly in the AI sector, which has seen rapid increases in valuation. Despite the low leverage in the private sector and the resilience of the U.S. economy, the overall adjustment space for the U.S. market is expected to be limited [6][24]. - Investors are advised to wait for opportunities to "buy the dip" as the market adjusts [6][26]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Market Trends - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1048, down 18 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential short-term weakening of the RMB [26]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.04%, with mixed performance across sectors. The report suggests a cautious stance in the commodity market due to the high-risk environment in both A-shares and U.S. markets [29].