格林大华期货早盘提示-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the continuous wrong policies in the United States [2] - AI - driven capital expenditure of nearly $3 trillion is expected to drive the market up, but there are risks if it fails to turn into productivity [1] - The shift of foreign capital from the South Korean stock market to Chinese technology sectors is significant [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Economic News - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [1][2] - US data center planned capacity has soared to 245 gigawatts, with a 45 - gigawatt increase in Q3, and developers are building their own power plants in energy - producing areas [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 7,800 in 2026 driven by AI - related capital expenditure [1] - Foreign capital is leaving the South Korean stock market and flowing into Chinese technology sectors [1][2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - High - end chip depreciation concerns are affecting the US stock AI sector [1] - A "sell - Japan" trade is happening, with a rare "triple - kill" in stocks, bonds, and exchange rates [1] - Eli Lilly becomes the first trillion - dollar pharmaceutical company due to strong demand for drugs and sector rotation [1] - In September, over 1.9 million unemployed people in the US aged 25+ with a bachelor's degree accounted for a quarter of the total unemployed [1][2] - Amazon laid off about 4,700 employees, with nearly 40% in engineering, and cut jobs in the game and advertising sectors [1][2] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 75% after the New York Fed President's dovish remarks [2] - The capital expenditure forecast of the five major tech giants in 2026 has soared to $533 billion, and AI data center construction may need at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - US stock retailization is accelerating, and retail investors are major net buyers, especially in the options market [2] - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are almost exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to middle - income groups [2] - Economists are worried that large - scale layoffs by well - known companies may be an economic warning signal [2]