东吴证券晨会纪要-20251125

Macro Strategy - The economic total faces increasing downward pressure, with weak consumer and export performance continuing due to base effects [1][18] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of November non-farm data have led to a significant reduction in market expectations for a rate cut in December [19][20] - It is anticipated that the Fed will likely pause rate cuts in December, but this pause is seen as a "skip" rather than a cancellation, with a high probability of a rate cut in January [20][21] Financial Products - The A-share market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment in November, with limited adjustment space, while small-cap stocks may perform relatively better [2][22] - The overall market sentiment has been negatively impacted by the suspension of high-profile stocks, leading to an increase in daily limit-down stocks [2] - There are several sectors to watch during the market adjustment, including the computing power sector, which has shown signs of rebound [2][22] Fixed Income - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose from 1.8050% to 1.8125% during the week, indicating a slight upward trend in interest rates [5][22] - The issuance of green bonds decreased significantly, with 26 new green bonds issued totaling approximately 24.619 billion yuan, down 44.489 billion yuan from the previous week [5] - The market is currently in a cautious state regarding the potential for year-end allocation opportunities in the bond market [22] Company Analysis - Baidu Group is expected to benefit from AI business commercialization, with adjusted non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 lowered to 19.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan, respectively [7] - Wangfujing's revenue decline has narrowed, and the company is expected to benefit from the duty-free policy, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 1.80 billion, 4.28 billion, and 6.03 billion yuan [8] - Lenovo Group's FY2026-2028 net profit forecasts have been raised to 1.87 billion, 2.09 billion, and 2.33 billion USD, driven by AI-related business growth [9] - Ctrip Group is expected to see an increase in international business share and profit margins as it continues to expand overseas [9] - Kuaishou's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to 20.6 billion, 22.9 billion, and 25.2 billion yuan [14] - JD Group maintains strong competitive advantages in the e-commerce sector, with non-GAAP EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 9.0, 12.8, and 15.7 yuan [15] - Pinduoduo's performance exceeded expectations, with non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 100.4 billion, 126.5 billion, and 152.4 billion yuan [16]