粕类周报：粕类供应宽松，盘面震荡回落-20251125

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The international soybean supply pressure has improved, which supports prices to some extent. However, the market may be more affected by South American weather. If the weather is good, the price pressure could be relatively high, and the new - crop market supply - demand pattern is generally loose [5]. - The domestic soybean meal price faces downward pressure due to cost - side factors and sufficient near - term supply, but there is still some support [5]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market is generally in a supply - loose situation, with price pressure expected to remain, but it may fluctuate [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: The US soybean market lacks more bullish factors, and the subsequent price is mainly affected by exports. South American old - crop supply pressure is neutral. Brazilian exports and crushing were good earlier, and the new - crop planting is progressing well. Argentine old - crop supply pressure has improved, and new - crop planting is advancing. The domestic soybean meal price is affected by cost and supply, and the rapeseed meal market is supply - loose [5][6]. - Strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - US Soybeans: The US soybean price fluctuated greatly this week, rising at first and then falling. The demand is improving, with export inspection volume and crushing volume increasing. However, the upside space is limited as the current price has fully reflected the bullish factors [13]. - Brazilian Soybeans: The Brazilian soybean price continued to fall. The old - crop supply pressure is neutral, with good demand in exports. The new - crop planting progress is accelerating, and the weather is expected to improve. The market is still relatively supply - loose [16]. - Argentine Soybeans: The Argentine soybean price remained stable. The old - crop supply pressure has improved, and the new - crop planting is progressing smoothly, but the planting area may decrease [16]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal price fell, affected by the US soybean price and the actual supply situation. The oil - mill operating rate increased, demand and trading volume improved, and the near - term supply is sufficient [19]. - Domestic Rapeseed Meal: The domestic rapeseed meal price fell due to sufficient supply. The demand is average, and the market is supply - loose, with prices expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - International Market: It includes data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing volume; and foreign basis [26][29]. - Macro: It involves exchange rates (USD/CNH, USD/BRL, UDS/ARS) and international shipping freight rates. The shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China all increased [40][48]. - Supply: It includes data on soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [51]. - Demand: It includes data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货量 [54]. - Inventory: It includes data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory [57].