国新国证期货早报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 24, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to 3836.77, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 12585.08, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31% to 2929.04. The trading volume of the two markets was 1727.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 237.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - CSI 300: The index showed weak fluctuations, closing at 4448.05, a decrease of 5.56 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1675.5, a rise of 1.0. Spot price increases have been implemented, industry profits have improved, and coke supply has increased. However, steel mill demand is weakening [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index remained weak, closing at 1129.6 yuan, a decrease of 14.9. Domestic coal supply is slowly recovering, but demand from coke enterprises and steel mills is weakening [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded. Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the output is expected to decline slightly [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a slight increase during the day but fell at night due to the increase in inventory at Qingdao Port. As of November 23, the total inventory in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a 3.60% increase [4][6]. 2.4 Live Pigs - The LH2601 contract rose 0.44% to 11,400 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the changes in the inventory of breeding sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [6]. 2.5 Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures fell on November 24. Domestically, the M2601 contract fell 0.03% to 3011 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American producing areas and soybean imports [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The P2601 contract fell 0.75%. As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas was 667,100 tons, a 2.13% increase from the previous week and a 31.34% increase year - on - year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract rose. The supply is tight, and new energy demand provides support, but the price fluctuates at a high level due to the game between multiple and short forces [6]. 2.8 Iron Ore - The 2601 contract rose 0.44% to 790.5 yuan. The price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. 2.9 Asphalt - The 2601 contract rose 0.82% to 3060 yuan. The supply is decreasing, the inventory is being depleted, but the downstream demand is limited, and the price is in a volatile trend [6]. 2.10 Logs - The 2601 contract showed certain fluctuations. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The inventory has reached a three - month high, and attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and inventory changes [7]. 2.11 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,620 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 5 lots. The machine - picked cotton purchase price in Xinjiang was 6.18 - 6.27 yuan/kg, and the machine - picking in Xinjiang is basically over [7]. 2.12 Steel - The rb2601 contract was reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3295 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply - demand contradiction, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [7]. 2.13 Alumina - The ao2601 contract was reported at 2736 yuan/ton. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the market trading is inactive [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - The al2601 contract was reported at 21,380 yuan/ton. The supply is normal, and the demand is mainly in a wait - and - see state [7].