油料产业风险管理日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the soybean meal futures trading is on the potential reduction of the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the supply - side and whether China's purchase of 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans can be realized on the demand - side. If the US soybean inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will oscillate around the cost line, and domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force and follow the US market in the short term. The shipping schedule of China's US soybean purchases will determine the domestic supply [4]. - Rapeseed meal will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of supply recovery due to Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds after November, while demand growth is limited, so inventory is expected to rise. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - Hedging Strategies: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Futures Price and Spread - Futures Price: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3011 with no change; soybean meal 05 is 2815 with no change; soybean meal 09 is 2924 with a 9 - point increase (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2446 with a 15 - point increase (0.62%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2385 with no change; rapeseed meal 09 is 2449 with a 14 - point increase (0.57%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1121.25 with no change; the offshore RMB is 7.113 with no change [7][10]. - Spread: The spread of M01 - 05 is 196 with a 13 - point decrease; M05 - 09 is - 109 with a 3 - point increase; M09 - 01 is - 87 with a 10 - point increase; RM01 - 05 is 61 with a 3 - point decrease; RM05 - 09 is - 64 with a 4 - point increase; RM09 - 01 is 3 with a 1 - point decrease. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3000 with no change, and the basis is - 11 with a 1 - point increase. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 with no change, and the basis is 131 with a 41 - point increase. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 420 with no change, and the futures spread is 565 with a 16 - point decrease [11]. 3.3 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4763.7174 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15.3404 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 0.0057. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3825.21 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.06 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 229.79 yuan/ton. The cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 774.5882 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2.2853 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 7.7035 [12]. - The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 889.0024 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15.3404 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 10.4113. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 216.0502 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 48.7548. The import profit of Canadian rapeseeds on the futures market is 749 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 1. The import profit of Canadian rapeseeds in the spot market is 1002 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 48 yuan/ton and no weekly change [12]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Brazilian export premiums support the price of far - month contracts from the cost side; the pricing oscillation range of the outer - market balance sheet moves up; the pressure on near - month contracts is alleviated during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts [9]. - Negative Factors: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal is at a seasonal inventory high. Brazilian planting is going smoothly, and the expected high yield in South America suppresses the far - month contract price. The supply gap in the far - month is filled under the background of Sino - US trade talks and procurement [9].