Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Oil: OPEC+ maintains its production - increasing stance, and the global economy and demand are not good. With the new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine attracting market attention and the geopolitical tension risk easing, international oil prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, but the rise of the US stock market has pushed international oil prices to end higher after a decline [1]. - Silver: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, risk appetite is boosted, and the bullish attribute of precious metals increases. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the divergence between gold and silver should be noted [1]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand situation of iron ore is improving marginally, and the demand resilience supports the rebound of ore prices. However, considering the drag of off - season steel, ore prices are expected to have room for correction. It is recommended to combine range trading and selling at high prices [3]. - Manganese Silicon: In the off - season, steel production may decline seasonally. Although the production of manganese silicon has been decreasing recently, the overall supply contraction is limited due to the upcoming new production capacity. The market inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [4]. - Rebar: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently, inventory is still decreasing, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate upwards, but the weak off - season demand may limit the upward space [5]. - Rubber: The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and suspension season, and the supply shortage expectation is rising. However, the arrival of overseas ships is expected to increase, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - Rapeseed Meal: The clearance process of Australian rapeseed arrivals has become the core focus of the market. The spot market faces the double situation of slow trading rhythm and strong inventory reduction pressure. Short - term rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7]. - Live Pigs: The current market supply pressure persists. Although the pickling demand in some regions supports pig prices to a certain extent, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [9]. - Palm Oil: Domestic palm oil has continued to arrive in large quantities, leading to inventory accumulation, which is bearish for palm oil. However, the strong willingness of traders and oil mills to support prices provides some support. The near - month contract is expected to run weakly in the short term [9]. - Short - term Treasury Bonds: The winning bid rate of the Treasury cash is lower than the previous period, indicating a significant decline in inter - bank capital costs and a continuous loosening of the capital market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the medium term [10]. - Gold: The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are increasing. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [10]. - PX: Due to good blending oil benefits and other factors, PXN continues to expand, which strongly supports PX. PX is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the risk of a sharp drop in crude oil [11]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is decreasing. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2060 level [11][12]. - Glass: The profit of float glass enterprises is stable at a low level, production is expected to be stable, and inventory is higher than in previous years. The glass 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with pressure at the 1035 level [12]. - PVC: Domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase. The cost provides strong support. The PVC 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with pressure at the 4540 level [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Energy and Chemicals - Oil: As of November 21, the number of active drilling rigs in the US reached 419, the highest since October. The US has proposed a 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - PX: This week's PX output was 74.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The domestic PX average weekly capacity utilization rate was 89.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [11]. - Methanol: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2053 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - Rubber: As of November 23, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.60% [6]. - Palm Oil: As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic areas was 667,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,900 tons, an increase of 2.13% [9]. Metals - Silver: Fed officials' statements have increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut, boosting the bullish sentiment of silver [1]. - Iron Ore: From November 17 to 23, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 569,600 tons [3]. - Manganese Silicon: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products this week was 121,407 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%. The weekly supply decreased by 1.33% to 196,910 tons [4]. - Rebar: On November 24, the domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. - Gold: The US and Ukraine have completed a 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be determined [10]. - PVC: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4440 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 20 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [13]. - Glass: The average price of national float glass is 1094 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The float glass start - up rate is 74.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points [12]. Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Meal: As of November 21, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [7]. - Live Pigs: On November 24, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from last Friday [9]. - Eggs: On November 24, the price of eggs was 7.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.2% from last Friday [9]. Bonds - Short - term Treasury Bonds: On November 24, the winning bid rate of the 2025 central Treasury cash management commercial bank time deposit (the eleventh issue) was 1.73%, lower than the previous 1.76% [10].
宁证期货今日早评-20251125
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-25 02:09