上方承压：工业硅&多晶硅日评20251125-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. For industrial silicon, the production in November is expected to fall below 400,000 tons, and the overall downstream demand is weak. For polysilicon, downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure on the upside of spot prices [1]. - The investment strategy for industrial silicon is interval operation, and for polysilicon, it is to temporarily wait and see [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.22% to 8,940 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: The southwest production area has entered the high-cost period of the dry season, with some silicon enterprises shutting down furnaces and production in late October. The silicon enterprise starting rate has significantly declined. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will fall below 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand Side: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand. The overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. - Investment Strategy: Interval operation [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: The price of N-type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N-type reclaimed material decreased by 0.10% to 52.25 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.08% to 53,315 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some polysilicon factories may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output in November will decrease to about 120,000 tons [1]. - Demand Side: The polysilicon market trading is light, new transactions are few, and downstream resistance to high-priced resources is strong. The market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - Investment Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [1]. Market Information - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 0.59 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic installation was 253GW [1]. - Recently, a 100,000-kilowatt thermal storage-type concentrated solar power project with a 900,000-kilowatt new energy photovoltaic project in Jinghe County, Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang is approaching full production [1].