宝城期货原油早报-20251125

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1] Group 2: Core View - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data released by the US last weekend, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is now in a game with geopolitical sentiment. Due to the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices are recovering. On Monday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and stable trend with a slight rebound. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish trend on Tuesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle View - For crude oil 2601, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that bullish factors support the crude oil to be volatile and bullish [1] Price -行情 Driving Logic - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is bullish, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is bullish operation. The core logic involves macro sentiment weakening, supply - demand structure changes, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may be bullish on Tuesday [5]