宝城期货国债期货早报-20251125

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that in the short - term, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, but the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and they will mainly show an oscillatory pattern [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillatory", the medium - term view is "oscillatory", and the intraday view is "weak". The reference view is "oscillatory consolidation", with the core logic being that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined while the long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillatory", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly rebounded yesterday. In October, economic data such as consumption and investment weakened, and the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. The long - term policy loose expectation supports treasury bond futures, but the necessity of policy intensification within the year is not strong, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. Currently, there are signs of weakening both at home and abroad, and short - term risk - aversion demand supports the demand side of treasury bonds [5].