宝城期货铁矿石早报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Iron Ore 2601 are all in a state of shock, with an overall view of shock and weakness. The short - term positive factors have fermented, and the ore price is in a high - level shock [1]. - The iron ore supply remains high while the demand weakens, and the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved. The ore price is still under pressure. The short - term support comes from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price is expected to continue the shock operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock and weakness, and the overall view is shock and weakness. The core logic is that short - term positive factors have fermented, leading to a high - level shock in ore prices [1]. 3.2 Calculation Rules for Rise and Fall - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day to calculate the rise - fall range. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is shock and weakness, a rise of 0 - 1% is shock and strength, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The shock - strength/weakness only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [2]. 3.3 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production has stabilized, the terminal consumption of ore has weakened, and the profitability of steel mills is poor, so the ore demand is expected to remain weak. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, but both are still at a high level within the year. Overseas supply is active, and domestic ore supply is stable. The ore supply remains high. Overall, the ore market fundamentals have not improved, and the ore price is still under pressure. The short - term support comes from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price is expected to continue the shock operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]