Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Options: Consider partial profit - taking on deeply out - of - the - money short put options [5]. - Hedging: Lithium salt producers should moderately increase the proportion of selling hedging, and downstream enterprises can buy hedging in a medium - proportion according to orders to lock in procurement costs [5]. - Basis: Hold a small - position long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio (entering delivery) and manage risks well [5]. - Calendar spread: Participate in a small - position short 03 - long 05 reverse arbitrage portfolio [5]. - Unilateral strategy: As the exchange takes measures to cool down, long - position funds may gradually take profits, potentially leading to a short - term price correction. Short - position entry should be in a light position with profit - taking settings [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In Yichun, the probability of production suspension in operating mines is low. The 8 lithium - related mines in Yichun have all submitted mineral type change reserve verification reports. The Jiaxiaowo Mine is expected to have a low probability of resuming production this year, though there are still reports indicating a possible December restart [6][14][15]. - The prices of lithium raw materials have increased. As of November 20, the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 195 to 1245 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 420 to 2700 yuan/ton [15]. - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials has increased. In the week of November 20, the production of lithium carbonate was 22,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 585 tons. In October 2025, the monthly total production of domestic lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 55%. It is expected that the output in November will remain at the same level as in October [21][22]. - Import data shows that in October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56%. China imported about 23,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 22% [27]. Demand Side - The new energy vehicle industry is in the peak production and sales season. In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33]. - The energy storage demand remains strong. The supply of energy storage cells is growing steadily, and the demand from diversified investment entities for independent energy storage power stations is increasing. Policies in China and other countries are also promoting the development of the energy storage industry [36]. - The lithium battery production in November continues to be prosperous. In November 2025, the planned production of power + energy storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [47]. - The production of cathode materials is expected to increase. In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. It is expected that the planned production in November will increase by 8% to 425,898 tons. The production of ternary materials in October was 84,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43%. The market demand in November is expected to continue to improve [49]. Inventory Side - Both factory inventories and warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate are decreasing. As of November 20, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2052 tons to 118,400 tons week - on - week. The warehouse receipt volume was 26,916 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 254 tons [53]. Basis Analysis - There are opportunities for spot - futures positive arbitrage. The holding cost for 1 month is about 2663 yuan/ton, and for 2 months is about 3317 yuan/ton. Hold the long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio and manage risks well [55]. Spread Analysis - Consider participating in the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 03 - 05 contracts. The 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one can moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 03 - 05 contracts. However, the arbitrage trading space between contracts is limited [59]. Overseas Mines - Some mines have production and cost changes. For example, the Greenbushes Mine's CGP3 project is planned to start commissioning at the end of 2025, and the Mt Pilgangoora Mine's unit operating cost has decreased [60]. - There are many new/expansion projects in 2026, with a total lithium carbonate equivalent of 34.99 tons, including the CGP3 expansion of Greenbushes, the expansion of Goulamina in Mali under Ganfeng Lithium, etc. [61].
碳酸锂周度行情分析：资金热度或阶段性降温，碳酸锂新单暂观望-20251125
Hai Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-25 02:30