Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain a long - position mindset, monitor price movements at previous high levels (take profit if there is a sharp rally), and set stop - profit points. For options, hold out - of - the - money short put options with a light position and manage risks (rolling operations are possible). For calendar spreads, stay on the sidelines [4]. - Supply: Yichun's lithium mines are less likely to stop production. The Zhenkouli - Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi is unlikely to resume production this year, eliminating supply concerns. Overall, supply is expected to increase steadily as expected. Also, new warehouse receipts registration volume may be a concern due to high demand and large open interest [5]. - Demand: Energy storage cell production is full, with independent energy storage contributing significant growth. New energy vehicles are in the peak production and sales season, and demand is expected to remain high in Q4 2025. Lithium prices are supported by strong demand, but supply growth may increase price volatility [5]. - Hedging: Lithium salt producers should conduct low - proportion short hedging, and downstream enterprises can conduct medium - proportion long hedging based on orders to lock in procurement costs [5]. - Basis: Hold cash - and - carry arbitrage portfolios with a light position and manage risks [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of November 13, battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3950 yuan week - on - week to 84350 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3800 yuan to 82000 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 500 yuan to 76180 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2350 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8170 yuan/ton [9]. - As of November 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 5540 yuan (+6.73%) week - on - week to 87840 yuan/ton, and the weighted open interest increased by 128,300 lots to 1,037,300 lots [9]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Lithium Ore Production and Import - In October 2025, the output of Chinese sample lithium spodumene was 7350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 550 tons (+8%); the total output of Chinese lithium mica was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450 tons (-3%) [12]. - In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 711,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%, equivalent to about 67,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Imports from Australia were 347,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 64.1%; imports from Nigeria were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; imports from Zimbabwe were 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% [12]. - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total shipment of Mysteel's Australian lithium concentrate to China was 76,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons. The weekly average shipment to China was 68,000 tons, and the global shipment that week was 76,000 tons [12]. 2.2 Lithium Ore Price and Inventory - As of November 13, the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 125 dollars week - on - week to 1050 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 195 yuan to 2280 yuan/ton. As of November 7, the available inventory of lithium ore was 100,000 tons (82,000 tons in the previous period, increasing for three consecutive weeks) [15]. - As of November 13, the cash cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium spodumene was 84,065 yuan/ton, with a production loss of 907 yuan/ton; the cash cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium mica was 87,365 yuan/ton, and the loss from imported mica production was 6361 yuan/ton. The loss from producing lithium carbonate from imported raw materials deepened [15]. 2.3 Lithium Mine Project Progress - On November 6, 2025, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released the "Public Notice of the Assessment Report on the Mining Right Transfer Income of the Zhenkouli - Jianxiawo Mine (Utilized but Unpaid Resources) in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province". It is estimated that the probability of resuming production this year is low, and concerns about its resumption are weakened in the short term [15]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Production - According to SMM statistics, the weekly output of lithium carbonate in the week of November 13 was 21,545 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11 tons. Among them, the output from spodumene decreased by 220 tons to 12,904 tons (accounting for 60%), the output from mica decreased by 70 tons to 2941 tons (accounting for 14%), the output from salt lakes increased by 236 tons to 3555 tons (accounting for 17%), and the output from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2145 tons (accounting for 10%) [21]. - In October 2025, the monthly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 55%. The cumulative output from January to October was 780,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%. It is expected that the output of domestic lithium carbonate in November can still maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [21]. 2.5 Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide Import and Export - According to Chilean customs data, in October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56%; the amount exported to China was 16,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 46%. From January to October 2025, Chile exported a total of 189,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, and the amount exported to China was 137,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [27]. - According to customs data, in September 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3%, mainly affected by previous concentrated arrivals and domestic inventory digestion rhythms. Among them, 10,800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 55.2%, and 6948 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 35.5% [27]. - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, the output of lithium hydroxide was 29,220 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Among them, the smelting output was 24,950 tons, and the causticizing output was 4270 tons. It is expected that the overall output of lithium hydroxide in November will have a slight upward trend, with a roughly flat year - on - year performance [28]. - According to customs data, China's lithium hydroxide imports in September 2025 were 1473 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.3%, mainly due to the moderate recovery of high - nickel ternary material demand; exports were 6526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [28]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%, and a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and 6.9% respectively. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [33]. - In 2025, from January to October, the sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks in China exceeded 119,600, a year - on - year increase of 198%. In September 2025, 392,000 new energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 33% and a month - on - month increase of 62%, with a market penetration rate of 31.7% [33]. - In October 2025, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 100%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 1.983 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.4% [33]. - As of November 13, 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched purchase tax subsidy plans, which will ease the cliff - like decline in vehicle sales across the year to some extent [33]. 3.2 Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage cell supply is growing steadily, and demand from diversified investment entities is increasing. Overseas energy storage orders are also growing due to tariff relief and favorable policies [36]. - The "New Energy Storage Large - scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025 - 2027)" sets a goal of reaching an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving direct investment of about 250 billion yuan [36]. - Australia, the UK and other countries have introduced policies to support the development of energy storage, ensuring sufficient energy storage orders [36]. 3.3 Lithium Battery Production - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, China's lithium battery output was 192.9 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8%. Among them, the output of power cells increased by 11% to 125 GWh, the output of energy storage cells increased by 3% to 54 GWh, and the output of consumer and other cells increased by 3% to 14 GWh [43]. - From November 7, 2025, to November 10, 2026, the implementation of 6 export control measures related to strategic fields such as rare earths, lithium batteries, and super - hard materials will be suspended [43]. - According to大东时代智库, in November 2025, the production of power + energy storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh; the production of lithium battery A was 71.4 GWh, the production of lithium battery B was 31.4 GWh, and the production of lithium battery C was 14.9 GWh. The production of consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was about 16 GWh. The production of power + energy storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market in November 2025 was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [47]. 3.4 Lithium Battery Material Market - Lithium iron phosphate: In October 2025, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. It is expected that the production in November will increase by 8% month - on - month to 425,898 tons [49]. - Ternary materials: In October 2025, the output of ternary materials was 84,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43%. It is expected that the market demand will continue to improve in November, and the production plan will continue to rise slightly, with a month - on - month increase of 1.37% and a year - on - year increase of 39.76% [49]. - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, China's electrolyte output increased by 4.8% month - on - month to 207,580 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 1.655 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.3% [50]. - According to SMM research, in October 2025, China's lithium hexafluorophosphate output increased by 14% month - on - month to 25,420 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 200,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.4% [50]. 4. Inventory Analysis - As of November 13, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3481 tons week - on - week to 120,500 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 2445 tons to 28,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 3236 tons to 48,800 tons, and the inventory of other sectors such as traders increased by 2200 tons to 43,400 tons [54]. - As of November 13, the warehouse receipt volume was 26,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 2384 tons. New warehouse receipts registration volume may be a concern due to high demand and the forced cancellation of non - compliant warehouse receipts at the end of November [54]. 5. Basis Analysis - The holding cost for 1 - month is about 1838 yuan/ton, and for 2 - month is about 2460 yuan/ton. Hold cash - and - carry arbitrage portfolios and manage risks [56]. 6. Spread Analysis - The 11 - 12 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity of the 03 - 04 spread approaching the March delivery month [58].
碳酸锂周度行情分析：需求高景气，碳酸锂偏强运行-20251125
Hai Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-25 02:30