LC2511交割分析

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - As of November 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt volume was 27,170 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2511 contract was 13,775 tons, a 27% increase compared to the LC2510 delivery volume. Among them, the rolling delivery warehouse receipt volume was 11,018 tons, accounting for 80% [2][6]. - [Basis] Benefiting from the amplified price fluctuations of lithium carbonate, there were successive opportunities for cash - buying and November - selling transactions since July 2025. After the strong rally of lithium carbonate futures prices, the weakening of the spot - futures basis provided trading space for spot - futures positive arbitrage, but risk management was necessary. [Spread] The spread between the 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching November, which still followed the logic of the widening spread between contracts in the cancellation month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one could moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage opportunities of the 03 - 05 contracts. The spread fluctuations between non - cancellation month contracts were relatively small, with limited arbitrage trading space [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of November 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt volume was 27,170 tons. The LC2511 contract had a total delivery warehouse receipt volume of 13,775 tons, a 27% increase from LC2510. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated on the first day of the delivery month. The rolling delivery warehouse receipt volume was 11,018 tons (80%), one - time centralized delivery was 473 tons (3%), and the volume of delivery against cash was 2,284 tons [6]. - The report also lists the delivery volumes of different buyer and seller members, such as Guotai Junan Futures with a delivery volume of 1,680 tons on the buyer side and 650 tons on the seller side [7]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - The report shows the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and warehouses, such as the distribution in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan. As of November 18, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 15,800 tons compared to the first trading day after the National Day holiday [10][15]. - A table lists the minimum guaranteed storage capacity, warehouse receipts, and other information of various warehouses and factories. For example, the minimum guaranteed storage capacity of Cosco Shipping Zhenjiang is 5,000 tons, with 1,696 warehouse receipts [13]. 3.3 Basis and Inter - period Opportunity Review - When there was one month left until the delivery of the 11 - contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,323 yuan/ton (the futures capital cost could be saved after the warehouse receipt offset the margin). Since July 2025, there were opportunities for cash - buying and futures - selling transactions. The spread between the 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching November, following the logic of the widening spread between contracts in the cancellation month [19][21][22]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - With the storage days calculated from the first trading day of the delivery month, the holding cost of cash - buying and selling the 2601 contract was about 2,320 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis was around - 6,120 yuan/ton, and one could moderately participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage (with risk management). - The 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one could moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage opportunities of the 03 - 05 contracts. The futures market was strong under the expectation of high - demand prosperity, but the spread fluctuations between contracts were relatively small, with limited arbitrage trading space [24][26].