尿素周度行情分析：出口扰动情绪降温，尿素期价窄幅调整-20251125

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted. After the export quota was finalized, market sentiment gradually cooled, and the price showed a narrow - range oscillation. The urea futures price is likely to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, supported by export news and reserve demand expectations, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited. The UR01&05 spread strengthened slightly recently, but its rebound space is also limited. For options, the short - term reduction of positions in the previously sold main call options is recommended, with attention to risk control and stop - loss [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted this week. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1,658 yuan/ton. The current urea futures market is in a relatively strong oscillation. After the new batch of export quotas was finalized, market sentiment cooled, but the price still showed some resistance to decline. The improvement in fundamental supply and demand is relatively limited. Although the industrial inventory has declined from its high level, the absolute quantity still exerts significant pressure, weakening the price rebound momentum to some extent. The price is likely to oscillate and adjust, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited [6]. Spot Market - This week, the prices of the urea spot market in various regions increased slightly. Due to export stimulation, traders and end - users appropriately increased their replenishment, and factory quotes were relatively firm, but the sustainability was insufficient. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong was about 1,550 - 1,630 yuan/ton, the reference price for first - hand traders in Linyi was around 1,600 yuan/ton, and that in Heze was around 1,590 yuan/ton [9]. Basis and Spread - This week, the basis adjusted within a narrow range. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 58 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 18 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 73 yuan/ton, adjusting at a low level [9]. Warehouse Receipts - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has gradually increased. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 6,958. Currently, the warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings, while those in other factories and warehouses are relatively low [10]. Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 229,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the maintenance volume of coal - based sample plants was about 18,230 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period; the maintenance volume of gas - based sample plants was about 46,700 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. As of November 13, the domestic urea operating rate was about 84.08%, an increase of about 1.37% compared with the previous period. This week, the urea output was about 1.3769 million tons, an increase of about 22,400 tons compared with last week. The continuous increase in the stock load pressure may drag down the subsequent urea price, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to improve due to the expected release of new production capacity [13][16][17]. Downstream Industries - Compound Fertilizer: As of November 13, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72% compared with last week. The profit of compound fertilizer continued to be compressed. The inventory of compound fertilizer decreased to about 656,300 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 6.36%. The seasonal slowdown of the compound fertilizer load may weaken its support for urea [19]. - Melamine: As of November 13, the domestic melamine operating rate was about 57.48%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine output increased to about 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.15%. The load is expected to remain strong in the future [20]. Inventory and Pre - sales - As of November 12, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was about 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of about 94,500 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 5.99%. The port inventory increased to 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous period. As of now, the pre - sales days are about 7.71 days, an increase of about 0.42 days compared with the previous period. The inventory pressure of the urea industry has been moderately relieved, but the absolute quantity is still large, and further inventory digestion is needed [23][24]. Industry Profits - As of November 13, the profit of the fixed - bed process was about - 327 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the profit of the coal - water slurry process was about 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the profit of the natural gas process was about - 282 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The urea industry profit has continued to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, so the profit is likely to continue weak adjustment [27].