宏观面预期反复但稳定，基本金属震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is repetitive yet stable, and base metals are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. In the short - to - medium - term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, but repetitive macro - expectations and average demand limit price increases. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For specific metals: copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; alumina prices will remain under pressure and oscillate; aluminum prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term and may increase in the medium - term; aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in both the short and medium - term; zinc prices will oscillate and may decline in the long - term; lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly; nickel prices will oscillate weakly; stainless steel prices will oscillate within a range; tin prices will oscillate strongly [7][11][13][14][17][19][21][23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Copper - Information: The US government ended a 43 - day shutdown. Some Fed officials have a hawkish stance. In October, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month (a 2.62% decline), and increased by 9.63% year - on - year. As of November 24, copper inventory dropped by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons. There was an accident at a Congolese copper mine [6][7]. - Logic: The macro - situation is uncertain. Copper supply is tightening due to supply disruptions and reduced scrap copper recycling. Demand is weak but the acceptance of copper prices by downstream industries is increasing [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [7]. Alumina - Information: On November 24, alumina prices in different regions showed some changes. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the alumina warehouse receipt increased by 3,606 tons [8]. - Logic: Macro - sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. The supply contraction needs further observation, with strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak, but more funds are starting to focus on alumina [9]. - Outlook: Alumina prices will remain in an oscillatory state [11]. Aluminum - Information: On November 24, the SMM AOO average price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories decreased. In October, China's net import of primary aluminum increased. New aluminum plants in Indonesia have production plans [12]. - Logic: The Fed is divided, and the domestic economy is weakly stable. The domestic supply capacity is high, and overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. Terminal demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing [13]. - Outlook: Aluminum prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term and may increase in the medium - term [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Information: In October, China's scrap aluminum imports increased by 19% year - on - year. The EU plans to introduce a new rule on restricting scrap aluminum exports in 2026 [14][15]. - Logic: The cost of scrap aluminum is high. Supply is affected by various factors, and demand is improving marginally. Social and warehouse inventories are increasing [14]. - Outlook: Aluminum alloy prices will oscillate strongly in both the short and medium - term [14]. Zinc - Information: On November 24, spot zinc prices in different regions had different premiums. As of November 24, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons. A mine in Australia delayed high - grade zinc ore mining [15][16]. - Logic: The macro - situation is repetitive but stable. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and domestic zinc ingot exports have opened up. Demand is entering the off - season [17]. - Outlook: Zinc prices will oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [17]. Lead - Information: On November 24, scrap battery prices and the primary - secondary lead price difference remained unchanged. Lead ingot social inventory decreased. Some lead smelters are under maintenance [18]. - Logic: Spot premiums decreased slightly. Supply is affected by environmental protection, and demand is at the end of the peak season [18]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [19]. Nickel - Information: On November 24, LME nickel inventory decreased by 468 tons, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 708 tons. The acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel assets by Minmetals is under review. An Indonesian nickel company cut production [20]. - Logic: The market sentiment dominates. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the inventory is accumulating [21]. - Outlook: Nickel prices will oscillate weakly [21]. Stainless Steel - Information: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 542 tons. Nickel iron prices declined. A steel mill's high - nickel pig iron tender price decreased [22]. - Logic: The cost support for steel prices is weakening. Stainless steel production may decrease in November, and inventory is accumulating [23]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices will oscillate within a range [23]. Tin - Information: On November 24, LME tin warehouse receipts increased by 20 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 22 tons. The average price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 200 yuan/ton [24]. - Logic: Tin supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar, reduced exports from Indonesia, and unstable production in Africa. Demand is increasing in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries [24]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24]. 3.2行情监测 No relevant information provided other than the section titles. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 24, 2025, the comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index), and the non - ferrous metals index all showed certain percentage increases. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily increase of 0.43%, a 5 - day increase of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 2.13%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.39% [150][151].