尿素周度行情分析：储备需求支撑，尿素期价呈现较强抗跌性-20251125

Report Overview - Report Title: "Reserve Demand Supports, Urea Futures Prices Show Strong Resistance to Decline - Weekly Urea Market Analysis" [1] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Chang Xuemei, Chemical Researcher at Haizheng Futures Research Institute [28] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand data of urea has improved recently, and the price is relatively firm. The short - term price is supported by the improvement of industrial and agricultural demand and optimistic expectations for Indian tenders and exports. However, the high daily production may limit the price rebound space, and the price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the future [6]. - The UR01&05 spread continues to fluctuate and adjust, and the impact of the main contract shift on the spread needs further attention [6]. - The urea industry inventory pressure has been further relieved, but the absolute inventory is still large and needs further digestion [23]. - The urea industry profit continues to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still loose, so the profit may continue to be weakly adjusted [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: This week, the main 01 contract of urea fluctuated upward, showing strong resistance to decline. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1665 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot Price: This week, the spot prices of urea in various regions increased slightly. Northeast procurement improved the domestic urea trading. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong was about 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [7][8]. - Basis: This week, the basis was strongly volatile. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 25 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 15 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening compared with the previous period [8]. - Spread: As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 70 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening with relatively limited volatility [8]. - Warehouse Receipts: Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has been stable. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 7183, mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [10]. 3.2 Supply Side - Maintenance: This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 20.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the coal - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 16.27 million tons, a decrease of 21.96 million tons compared with the previous period; the gas - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 4.67 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period [13]. - Operating Rate: As of November 20, the domestic urea operating rate was about 83.91%, a slight decrease of about 0.17% compared with the previous period. The coal - based production capacity utilization rate of urea production enterprises was about 87.23%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period; the gas - based production capacity utilization rate was about 72.55%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous period [15]. - Production: This week, the urea production was about 142.04 million tons, an increase of about 4.35 million tons compared with last week. The coal - based weekly urea production was about 114.31 million tons, an increase of about 4.43 million tons from the previous period; the gas - based weekly urea production was about 27.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons compared with the previous period [15]. 3.3 Demand Side - Compound Fertilizer: As of November 20, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 34.61%, an increase of 4.29% compared with last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was about 65.48 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.23%. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong continued to be compressed [18]. - Melamine: As of November 20, the domestic melamine enterprise operating rate was about 62.2%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine production was about 3.2 million tons, continuing to rise compared with last week. The short - term increase in operating rate is expected to slow down [20]. 3.4 Inventory and Profit - Inventory: As of November 19, the total domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 143.72 million tons, a decrease of about 4.64 million tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 3.13%. The urea port sample inventory was about 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 21.95%. The current pre - sales days were about 7.12 days, a decrease of about 0.59 days compared with the previous period [22][23]. - Profit: As of November 20, the fixed - bed process profit was about - 307 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the coal - water slurry profit was about 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with last week; the natural gas profit was about - 288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [26].