能源化策略日报：俄乌和谈进展影响油?，进?减量预期提振甲醇-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains the dominant factor affecting oil prices. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks will impact the supply of oil and gas, and the market is closely watching the further development of the negotiations. The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation, with olefins being relatively weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Various Products - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure persists. If the geopolitical support gradually weakens, the oil price is expected to return to a weaker pattern [4]. - Asphalt: The increase in rebar prices drives up the asphalt futures price on the sentiment side. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the absolute price is overvalued [4][9]. - High-Sulfur Fuel Oil: The expectation of a Russia-Ukraine agreement drives the fuel oil price down [4]. - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the weakness of crude oil. Although it is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, it is still affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [4][11]. - Methanol: The overseas disturbance is confirmed, and methanol is expected to be strong in the short term. The expected reduction in imports in December and the restart of downstream备货 contribute to the price increase [3][4]. - Urea: The centralized procurement has paused, and the futures price has declined slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [4][31]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The supply-demand pattern has improved, and some short positions have been closed. However, the rebound height is limited due to the long-term supply pressure [4][21]. - PX: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price has changed from strong to adjustment. The supply pressure is expected to be alleviated by the maintenance of some devices [4][13]. - PTA: The basis has emerged from the downturn, and the profit has been slightly repaired. The supply-demand pattern has improved marginally, and the inventory has decreased [4][14]. - Short Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it follows the upstream passively [4][25]. - Bottle Chip: The cost support has increased, and the price has rebounded slightly [4][26]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the PL fluctuates [4][35]. - PP: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and the change in maintenance needs to be monitored [4][34]. - Plastic: The maintenance rate has increased slightly, and the price fluctuates [4][33]. - Styrene: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and it mainly fluctuates [4][18]. - PVC: The high inventory suppresses the price, and it may be anchored to production cuts [4][36]. - Caustic Soda: The supply and demand are weak, and the valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate [4][37]. 3.2 Data Monitoring of Various Products - Inter - Period Spread: The inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PTA have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for the future price relationship of different periods [39]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX also show different trends, which can help analyze the market's current supply - demand relationship and price rationality [40]. - Inter - Product Spread: The inter - product spreads between PP and methanol, PTA and EG, etc. have changed, which can reflect the relative price relationship and market structure between different products [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index of the commodity index show different trends. The comprehensive index has increased slightly, while the energy index has declined [281][282].