利多驱动延续，玉米盘面再度走高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each commodity: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a downward - oscillating trend [6] - Protein meals: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate [7] - Corn and starch: Expected to be oscillating, with a short - term upward trend [8][9] - Pigs: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend [10] - Natural rubber: Expected to oscillate [11][12] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to oscillate, with a suggestion to short at high prices [13] - Cotton: Short - term 01 contract to oscillate, long - term to be weakly upward - oscillating [13] - Sugar: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend in the medium - long term [14] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate [15] - Offset paper: Short - term price support from publisher pick - up, medium - term weakly oscillating [16] - Logs: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend at a low level [17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It points out that different products are affected by different factors such as weather, policies, trade relations, and market sentiment. For example, corn prices are supported by factors like farmers' reluctance to sell, enterprises' replenishment demand, and transportation issues; while pig prices are affected by supply and demand imbalances in the short and medium - term, with a potential supply reduction in the long - term [1][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: The market sentiment is weak as the expected production of Malaysian palm oil in November is increasing month - on - month. - Logic: Macroeconomic factors include the repeated expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the potential increase in global oil supply. On the industrial side, the US soybean harvest is almost complete, South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the expected arrival of imported soybeans in China is at a relatively high level. For palm oil, the production in November is expected to increase while exports are expected to decline. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase later [6] - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a downward - oscillating trend [6] 3.2 Protein Meals - Viewpoint: Rapeseed meal has increased in position and price, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to shrink. - Logic: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and there is a drought risk in parts of South America. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and the export is expected to decline. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, and there is an expectation of soybean reserves release. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years [7] - Outlook: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, and the price difference between them is expected to shrink [7] 3.3 Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: The upward trend continues due to positive factors. - Logic: Positive factors include farmers' reluctance to sell due to weather and transportation issues, the replenishment demand of feed - using enterprises, and the increase in transportation costs. In the short term, these positive factors will continue, but there may be a callback in the future [1][9] - Outlook: Oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see as the positive factors have not been fully digested [9] 3.4 Pigs - Viewpoint: Sows are reducing production, and the short - term price is weak while the long - term price is strong. - Logic: In the short and medium - term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is insufficient. In the long - term, the reduction of sows' production capacity is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10] - Outlook: Weakly oscillating. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [10] 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The flood in the production area has triggered bullish sentiment, but the increase is limited. - Logic: The rebound is mainly due to concerns about floods in Thailand. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly recently. The upside space is limited without strong expected differences and macro - driving factors [11][12] - Outlook: The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely and with high elasticity, and there is no obvious trend [12] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The market atmosphere has stabilized, and the price continues to oscillate. - Logic: The price of the raw material butadiene has rebounded after falling, and the trading volume has increased. However, as the price rises, the enthusiasm of sellers to ship has increased, and some high - price transactions have been blocked [13] - Outlook: It is recommended to short at high prices before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene [13] 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: The cotton price has rebounded, and the price difference between January and May contracts has widened. - Logic: Internationally, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase, and the inventory of US cotton is expected to accumulate. Domestically, the production of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually weakening seasonally. The January contract has limited upward driving force but is supported by the cost of new cotton [13] - Outlook: The January contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term valuation is low and weakly upward - oscillating [13] 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price has rebounded slightly. - Logic: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the pressure on the sugar price will gradually increase as the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere comes on the market [14] - Outlook: Weakly oscillating in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14] 3.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: The pulp price oscillates as the positive and negative factors remain unchanged. - Logic: Positive factors include the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts, the strong price of broad - leaf pulp, and the relatively high price of non - cloth needle pulp. Negative factors include the possible delivery of about 70,000 tons of warehouse receipts in the January contract, the expected non - reduction of coniferous pulp imports, and the decreasing use of coniferous pulp [15] - Outlook: Oscillating [15] 3.10 Offset Paper - Viewpoint: Offset paper follows the raw material price and oscillates at a low level. - Logic: The raw material price is falling, the supply is stable, the downstream demand is limited, and the cost support is weakening. In November, there is price support from publisher pick - up, but in December, there may be a downward pressure due to dealers' inventory clearance [16] - Outlook: Short - term price support from publisher pick - up, medium - term weakly oscillating [16] 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: The supply and demand are loose, and the price oscillates at a low level. - Logic: The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly around the cost line [17][18] - Outlook: Weakly oscillating at a low level [18]