西南枯水期减产，工业硅供应过剩收窄

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand surplus of industrial silicon has narrowed due to the dry season in Southwest China, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range. For polysilicon, the single - direction operation is difficult due to the fundamental surplus and the undetermined "anti - involution" situation [5]. - The "anti - involution" measures for polysilicon have certain impacts on price and production capacity, but the implementation of policies such as storage and capacity reduction has uncertainties [28]. - The demand for photovoltaic main materials continues to decline, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased this week [37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 21, the spot prices of some industrial silicon grades in East China increased slightly, while the industrial silicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 8960 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 1.3% week - on - week to 53360 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Supply Side - Industrial Silicon: Southwest China has entered the dry season for production cuts. Although Xinjiang's production is still being released, the total industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop to about 400,000 tons. There are also some potential production projects in the future, but the "anti - involution" policy may affect their implementation [5][9]. - Polysilicon: The "anti - involution" measures have led to the restoration of enterprise profits and the resumption of production, increasing the difficulty of capacity clearance and inventory reduction. The impact of policies such as price limits, energy consumption limits, and storage on the supply side has uncertainties [28]. 3.3 Cost Side - The prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials are relatively stable, but the electricity price in Southwest China will rise during the dry season, leading to an increase in production costs and production losses in the region [24][26]. 3.4 Demand Side - Photovoltaic Main Materials: From November to December, the production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in China is expected to decline. The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers has increased, and the demand for overseas markets has declined [37]. - Organic Silicon: The joint production reduction plan of organic silicon monomer plants will be implemented on December 1, which is expected to reduce the monthly consumption of industrial silicon by about 4,400 tons [50]. - Aluminum Alloy: The production rate of aluminum alloy in November is at a high level, and the output in October was 1.682 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 19.5% [52]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 20, the social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipts) was 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of factory and social (including warehouse receipts) was 725,800 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous period [55]. 3.6 Spread and Arbitrage - For industrial silicon, new orders, options, and basis trading are on the sidelines. Upstream enterprises can conduct low - proportion selling hedging, and downstream enterprises such as polysilicon can conduct appropriate buying hedging according to orders [5]. - For polysilicon, hold light - position long orders and set stop - losses. Hold short - put options and manage risks. Upstream enterprises can conduct appropriate selling hedging at high positions, and downstream enterprises can conduct appropriate buying hedging to lock in costs [5]. 3.7 Policy and Industry Events - There are a series of policies and events in the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad, including the "anti - involution" governance in the domestic photovoltaic industry, the adjustment of energy consumption standards for polysilicon, and the trade policies of the United States and the European Union towards the photovoltaic industry [28][63][64].