Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize periodically. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The mid - to - long - term approach for the index is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, but attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing allocation power [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [8]. - Various metals and other commodities have different outlooks. For example, copper and aluminum prices have strong support, while zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Different operation suggestions are given for each commodity [11][13][16][17]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of MLF operations; the net subscription of Hang Seng Technology ETF exceeded 25 billion shares since November; Industrial Foshan stated it did not lower its Q4 profit target [2]. - Basis Ratio: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - Strategy View: The index is expected to stabilize periodically, and the mid - to - long - term approach is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Monday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of MLF operations and issued 45 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong; the central bank conducted 33.87 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 5.57 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve in Q4. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, but attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing allocation power [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices are provided; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are given; Fed officials' dovish statements drove the prices of precious metals to stabilize and rebound [7]. - Strategy View: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has rebounded. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: After the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, copper prices oscillated slightly higher. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic copper inventory and spot premiums changed [10]. - Strategy View: The Fed's possible interest - rate cut and the Sino - US dialogue ease geopolitical risks. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and domestic downstream demand is strong, so copper prices have strong support [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices oscillated narrowly. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed, and the trading sentiment was mainly wait - and - see [12]. - Strategy View: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low, and there are supply - disruption expectations. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after oscillating [13]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices changed slightly. Domestic and LME zinc inventories, basis, and other data are provided [14][15]. - Strategy View: Zinc ore supply is tight in the short term but may ease later. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices fell slightly. Domestic and LME lead inventories, basis, and other data are provided [17]. - Strategy View: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rebounded significantly. Spot premiums, nickel ore prices, and nickel - iron prices are provided [18]. - Strategy View: The short - term pressure on nickel fundamentals is obvious, and prices may continue to be under pressure. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [19]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided, and there are some risk factors such as the situation in Congo (Kinshasa) [21]. - Strategy View: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: Lithium carbonate prices fell. Spot and futures prices and other data are provided [23]. - Strategy View: The contradiction in lithium carbonate positions has eased. Lithium prices are expected to be weak, but the bottom - running range may rise. Attention should be paid to Q1 cell production and market sentiment [24]. Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data are provided [25][26]. - Strategy View: Overseas ore supply may increase, and the alumina industry has over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are provided [28]. - Strategy View: The stainless steel market has an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to decline weakly [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices stabilized. Futures prices, inventory, and other data are provided [29]. - Strategy View: Cast aluminum alloy prices have support at the cost end, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: Steel prices rose slightly. Futures prices, spot prices, and inventory data are provided [32]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand of rebar is both increasing, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils is still high. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term but may improve later [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, and inventory data are provided [34]. - Strategy View: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices also rose. Spot prices, inventory, and position data are provided [36][38]. - Strategy View: Glass supply - demand may improve in December, but the current supply - demand is still imbalanced. Soda ash supply pressure is high, but demand has improved marginally. Both are expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [40]. - Strategy View: The price of ferrous alloys has declined due to market sentiment and other factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [43][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices fell slightly, and polysilicon prices also fell slightly. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are provided [46][48]. - Strategy View: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within a wide range. Attention should be paid to relevant information such as platform - company progress [47][49]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. There are factors such as heavy rainfall in Thailand and concentrated expiration of Shanghai Exchange's natural - rubber warehouse receipts [51]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to have a bullish short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [56]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and refined - oil prices fell. European ARA's weekly data on refined - oil inventory is provided [57]. - Strategy View: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - price - support intention [58]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [59]. - Strategy View: The positive factors from Iran's plant shutdown are being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation remains. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices oscillated and rebounded. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [60]. - Strategy View: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure - benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices fell. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [61]. - Strategy View: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is decreasing. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [62]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [63]. - Strategy View: The domestic PVC market has an over - supply situation, and it is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene - glycol prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [66]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to go short on rallies [67]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [68]. - Strategy View: PTA supply may increase, and demand has limited upward space. PXN has the risk of valuation correction [69]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [71]. - Strategy View: PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November. PX has the risk of valuation correction [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [73]. - Strategy View: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices rose. Futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [75]. - Strategy View: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported in Q1 next year [77]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices mainly fell. Supply and demand data are provided, and it is expected that pig prices will continue to decline [79]. - Strategy View: The supply of live pigs is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [80]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply and demand are in a stalemate, and egg prices are expected to be stable or rise [81]. - Strategy View: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to demand support. In the medium term, it is recommended to wait for rallies to go short [82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybean prices fell. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable. Supply and demand data of global soybeans are provided [83]. - Strategy View: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and domestic soybean - meal inventory is large. Soybean - meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Palm - oil export data is weak, and domestic oil inventory data is provided [85]. - Strategy View: Palm - oil prices are under pressure due to high production. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn bullish if production decreases [86]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices rebounded slightly. Spot prices, production data of different regions are provided [87][88]. - Strategy View: The new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait for rallies to go short [89]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices rose slightly. Spot prices, inventory, and production data are provided [90][91]. - Strategy View: Cotton demand is not too bad after the peak season, and prices are expected to oscillate [92].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025-11-25-20251125
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-25 02:24