国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251125

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range fluctuations [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range fluctuations [2] - Ferrosilicon: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2] - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coke: Wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various black - series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and provides corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news [2][4][7] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures contract I2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.64%. The open interest decreased by 10,742 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices generally rose. The basis for I2601 against Super Special decreased by 1.7 yuan, and the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 1.8 yuan [4] - Macro and Industry News: In October, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth from January to October was 6.1% [4] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The RB2601 rebar contract closed at 3,089 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.95%, and the HC2601 hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,295 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.67%. The trading volume and open interest of both had changes. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [7] - Macro and Industry News: In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 871 million tons, a 2.5% decrease from the previous period. According to the November 20th steel union weekly data, the production of rebar increased by 7.96 million tons, and hot - rolled coil increased by 2.35 million tons. The total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 44.25 million tons, and the apparent demand increased [8][9] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts decreased, while the closing prices of silicomanganese 2601 and 2605 contracts increased. There were also changes in spot prices, basis differentials, and cross - variety spreads [11] - Macro and Industry News: On November 24th, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions had certain adjustments. Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou finalized the ferrosilicon procurement price on November 21st [11] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1096.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan or 0.6%, and the J2601 coke contract closed at 1632.5 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.1%. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [13] - Macro and Industry News: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [13] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [14] Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices of log futures contracts showed small fluctuations, with changes in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable, with some showing small decreases [16] - Macro and Industry News: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the 2025 No. 29 announcement on suspending the import of US logs starting from November 10th [18] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]