中辉黑色观点-20251125

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products: Low - level range operation [3] - Iron Ore: Bullish positions to take profits [8] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [11] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [14] - Ferroalloys: Cautiously short - sell at relatively low valuations [15] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: For rebar, production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased month - on - month but the absolute level is still high, with a weak fundamental balance; for hot - rolled coil, apparent demand and production rebounded month - on - month, inventory decreased slightly but is still the highest in the same period in recent years [4]. - Iron Ore: The iron - water output decreased slightly month - on - month, with an expectation of further reduction as steel mill maintenance increases. Steel mills and ports are destocking, external ore shipments increased while arrivals decreased. The static fundamentals weakened month - on - month, but the high iron - water output supports the ore price [7]. - Coke: After the fourth price increase was implemented, coke - making enterprises' profits improved significantly, and there are differences in the market regarding subsequent price cuts. Iron - water output decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level in the same period. Steel mills' restocking willingness declined, but coke - making enterprises' short - term shipments are okay, and most maintain normal production [10]. - Coking Coal: Domestic coal mine production is slowly recovering, and the restocking willingness decreased after short - term phased demand was released. Mongolian ports stopped outward transportation due to bad weather, and the daily vehicle clearance is expected to drop below 1,000. The market sentiment has weakened recently, and the price quotation of Mongolian coal has been declining. The current supply shortage expectation still exists [13]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, port ore prices are relatively firm, production in the producing areas continues to decline, demand improves marginally, inventory remains at the highest level in the same period, and downstream steel mills restock as needed with strong price - bargaining sentiment in tenders; for ferrosilicon, most of the industry is in losses but large - scale production cuts have not started, demand improves marginally, downstream steel mills maintain on - demand procurement, price - bargaining sentiment in tenders is strong, and inventory destocking becomes more difficult after phased restocking demand is released [17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: Rebar 01 is at 3,089 with a 32 increase; hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3,295 with a 25 increase. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also have different changes [2]. - Market Analysis: Rebar production and apparent demand increased, inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand and production rebounded, and inventory decreased slightly [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term range - bound fluctuations are expected as iron - water output decreased slightly and steel mills' willingness to cut production is low [5]. Iron Ore - Price Information: Iron ore 01 is at 791 with a 5 increase. Spot prices of different iron ore powders also have corresponding changes [6]. - Market Analysis: Iron - water output decreased slightly, with an expectation of further reduction. Steel mills and ports are destocking, external ore shipments increased while arrivals decreased, and the fundamentals weakened but the price is supported by high iron - water output [7]. - Operation Suggestion: Take profits on long positions [8]. Coke - Price Information: Coke 1 - month contract is at 1,632.5 with an 18 increase. There are also changes in basis, contract spreads, and spot prices [9]. - Market Analysis: After the fourth price increase, coke - making enterprises' profits improved, and there are differences in the market regarding subsequent price cuts. Iron - water output decreased slightly, and steel mills' restocking willingness declined [10]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see as the market may fluctuate after the previous decline [11]. Coking Coal - Price Information: Coking coal 1 - month contract is at 1,096.5 with a 6.5 decrease. There are also changes in basis, contract spreads, and spot prices [12]. - Market Analysis: Domestic coal mine production is recovering, restocking willingness declined, Mongolian port transportation was affected by weather, and the market sentiment weakened [13]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, partially take profits on short positions, and wait for opportunities for new positions [14]. Ferroalloys - Price Information: Ferromanganese 01 is at 5,630 with a 24 increase; ferrosilicon 01 is at 5,424 with an 18 decrease. There are also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [16]. - Market Analysis: For ferromanganese, port ore prices are firm, production declines, demand improves marginally, and inventory is high; for ferrosilicon, the industry is mostly in losses, demand improves marginally, and inventory destocking is difficult [17]. - Operation Suggestion: For ferromanganese, be cautious as the price tests cost support after a rapid decline; for ferrosilicon, be cautious as the valuation is low but the fundamentals limit the upside [18].