Overall Investment Ratings No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to show a pattern of "oscillating to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value." Domestic pro - growth policies are entering the implementation phase at the end of the year, and seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand is rising, increasing the intrinsic appreciation power of the RMB. However, short - term one - sided rapid appreciation is unlikely. The upside potential of the US dollar is weaker than in the previous cycle [2]. - For various commodities: - Precious metals: In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, focus on the Fed's December interest rate cut expectations and the 60 - day moving average. Gold resistance is at 4250, support at 4000, and strong support at 3900. Silver resistance is at 52.5, support at 49, and strong support at 47 [12]. - Copper: The copper market lacks a driving force and is expected to remain volatile. The price faces resistance at 86500 - 86600 and is accepted around 86000 [14]. - Aluminum industry chain: For electrolytic aluminum, short - term macro factors are positive, and focus on the probability of interest rate cuts. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum prices, and pay attention to the price difference between alloy and aluminum [16]. - Zinc: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They had a short - term correction. Be cautious about Indonesian policy stimuli. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger than the upside, and pay attention to long - term export expectations for stainless steel [18][19]. - Tin: It is affected by news and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - Lead: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited [20]. - Steel products: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Iron ore is expected to be relatively strong. Coking coal and coke: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal is strengthening. Ferroalloys are expected to be weak with oscillations [21][22][27]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern. LPG is expected to oscillate. PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation fades, and there are support levels for operation. MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. Methanol's 01 contract has limited upside. PP's downside space is limited. PE is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak with oscillations. Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening. Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to winter storage policies. Rubber and 20 - grade rubber are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Urea is expected to continue to oscillate. For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, supply disturbances are increasing [31][35][38][41][44][45][46][49][52]. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - Macro: Overseas, US employment data is divided, and Fed officials' statements increase the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but policy is firm, and the market expects more policies. The release of the US Q3 GDP forecast is postponed, and the PCE price index will be released on December 5 [1]. - Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1056, up 47 points, and the mid - price was 7.0847, up 28 points. The USD/CNY spot rate may "oscillate to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value" [1][2]. - Stock Index: The stock index was mixed. The decline in trading volume was 2378.87 billion yuan. External disturbances are both positive and negative, and the stock index is expected to oscillate [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market rose slightly, and the capital was loose. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and the mid - term has room for an increase. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [4][5]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The SCFIS was 1639.37, up 20%. The futures market was slightly down. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term. Traders can choose different strategies according to their types [5][6][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: On Monday, precious metal prices rose due to an over - 80% expectation of a December interest rate cut. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise, and short - term attention should be paid to the interest rate cut expectation and technical indicators [10][12]. Base Metals - Copper: The copper price was mixed in different markets. The market lacks a driving force and is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [13][14]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has support at the bottom [15][16]. - Zinc: It fluctuated in a narrow range. The reduction in smelting TC in November may lead to production cuts, and the inventory is changing [17]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They had a short - term correction. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and long - term export expectations [17][18][19]. - Tin: It was affected by news from the Congo and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - Lead: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited due to raw material shortages and cost support [20]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The demand and supply of steel products increased this week, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upside. They are expected to oscillate in a range [21][22]. - Iron Ore: It is relatively strong. The price is affected by coking coal and its own fundamentals. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before short - selling [22][24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal's 1 - 5 spread is strengthening. The supply of coking coal is marginally loose, and the demand is weak in the short - term, but it has support in the mid - term [24][26]. - Ferroalloys: They are expected to be weak with oscillations due to high inventory and weak demand, but the supply - side reduction limits the downside space [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It rebounded due to the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut. It is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern, and pay attention to OPEC + production, winter demand, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [30][31]. - LPG: It is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the changes in supply, demand, and inventory [31]. - PX - PTA: The supply of PX is expected to be high in Q4. PTA's supply and demand have improved marginally. Pay attention to maintenance plans and actual dynamics of blending oil [32][35]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The supply and demand are in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Consider selling call options on rebounds [36][37]. - Methanol: The 01 contract has limited upside. The port pressure may increase in December, and the inland is relatively strong [37][38]. - PP: The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and the demand growth has slowed down. The downside space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [40][41]. - PE: The supply is loose, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [43][44]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: They are expected to be weak with oscillations. The Asian pure benzene surplus situation may improve, but the domestic fundamentals are still weak [45]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening [46][47]. - Asphalt: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to winter storage policies, and there may be a long - position opportunity for BU2603 [49][50]. - Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to inventory, demand, and weather factors [52]. - Urea: It is expected to continue to oscillate. High supply is under pressure, but export policies and coal prices provide support [53]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Supply disturbances are increasing. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, glass is affected by cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda's demand is affected by downstream industries [53][54][56].
南华期货早评-20251125
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-25 03:00