宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年11月25日）-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Rebar 2601 are all "shock - weak", with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the upward trend of steel prices is weak [1] - Although short - term favorable factors support the recovery of undervalued steel prices, the demand for rebar will seasonally weaken, and supply has increased. The fundamentals have no substantial improvement, so steel prices are still prone to pressure, with weak upward drivers, and will continue to operate in a low - level shock state [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is shock - weak. The reason is that the fundamentals have not improved and the upward trend of steel prices is weak. There are also explanations for calculating the rise - fall range and definitions of shock - strong/weak [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the low number of warehouse receipts has led to a shock increase in rebar futures prices. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved. Construction steel mills have resumed production, with output rising from a low level and relatively high inventory, so supply pressure still exists [2] - Rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency demand indicators rising month - on - month, mainly due to the release of speculative demand. The main downstream industries are weak, and demand will seasonally weaken, continuing to drag down steel prices [2] - Short - term favorable factors support the recovery of undervalued steel prices, but the fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and steel prices are still prone to pressure, with weak upward drivers, continuing to operate in a low - level shock state. Attention should be paid to demand performance [2]