有色金属日报-20251125

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a non - industry - rated daily report on non - ferrous metals dated November 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with Fed officials turning dovish, reduced geopolitical risks, tight raw material supply, and strong downstream demand, copper prices are well - supported [3][4] - For aluminum, low global visible inventory and supply disruption expectations support aluminum prices, and it may strengthen after adjustment [6][7] - For lead, due to increased supply, stable domestic demand, and weak overseas market, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [8][9] - For zinc, although zinc ore is currently tight, it will loosen in the long - run. With weak financial assets globally, zinc prices may be weak in the short - term [10][11] - For tin, short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering price suppression on consumption and eased ore shortage, tin prices are expected to fluctuate [12][13] - For nickel, with increasing supply, weak demand, and possible cost - price negative feedback, nickel prices are under pressure [15][16] - For lithium carbonate, with easing position contradictions, weakening downstream demand, and potential supply and valuation factors, lithium prices may be weak but with an expected higher bottom [19][20] - For alumina, with recovering overseas ore supply, over - capacity in smelting, and prices near the cost line, it's recommended to wait and see [22][23] - For stainless steel, due to over - supply, weak demand, and falling costs, prices are expected to decline [25][26] - For cast aluminum alloy, with strong cost support and policy - induced supply disruptions, prices are expected to fluctuate [28][29] Group 3: Copper Market Information - LME copper 3M contract rose 0.03% to $10,781/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by about 14,000 tons, bonded area inventory increased slightly, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 6,000 tons to 44,000 tons. Shanghai spot premium over futures dropped to 85 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong, it rose to 125 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 2,820 yuan/ton [3] Strategy - The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $10,680 - 10,900/ton [4] Group 4: Aluminum Market Information - LME aluminum rose 0.18% to $2,813/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 8,000 to 605,000 lots, and futures warrants decreased by 1,000 tons to 68,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories decreased by 8,000 tons each. LME aluminum inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 546,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded. Cash/3M remained at a discount [6] Strategy - The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,780 - 2,830/ton [7] Group 5: Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index fell 0.19% to 17,132 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $1,992/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,075 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,600 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 262,900 tons [8] Strategy - Due to increased supply and weak demand, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [9] Group 6: Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index rose 0.01% to 22,398 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $17 to $3,006.5/ton. SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,380 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 74,600 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 47,300 tons [10] Strategy - Although zinc ore is currently tight, it will loosen in the long - run. With weak financial assets globally, zinc prices may be weak in the short - term [11] Group 7: Tin Market Information - On November 24, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 293,510 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. Tin smelting in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level, but raw material supply was tight. In October 2025, China imported 11,632 tons of tin concentrate, and imports from Congo (Kinshasa) recovered. Tin imports from Myanmar may increase by over 2,000 tons in November. Traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors support tin prices. National tin ingot social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [12] Strategy - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The recommended operating range for domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $36,000 - 38,000/ton [13] Group 8: Nickel Market Information - SHFE nickel main contract rebounded 1.30% to 115,530 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable. Nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices continued to fall [15] Strategy - Nickel prices are under pressure. It's not recommended to short or bottom - fish. Wait for nickel iron prices to stabilize. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16][17] Group 9: Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.06% to 90,311 yuan. LC2601 contract closed at 90,480 yuan, down 0.59% [19] Strategy - With easing position contradictions and weakening downstream demand, lithium prices may be weak. The expected operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 86,600 - 94,600 yuan/ton [20] Group 10: Alumina Market Information - On November 24, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.84% to 2,760 yuan/ton. Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. Overseas, MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at $319/ton, with an import loss of 43 yuan/ton. Futures warrants increased by 3,600 tons to 254,500 tons [22] Strategy - With recovering overseas ore supply and over - capacity in smelting, it's recommended to wait and see. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [23] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Information - SHFE stainless steel main contract closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi showed different trends. Raw material prices were stable. Futures inventory decreased by 5,441 tons to 64,924 tons, and social inventory decreased to 1,071,700 tons [25] Strategy - Due to over - supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless steel prices are expected to decline [26] Group 12: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.19% to 20,635 yuan/ton. Weighted contract positions decreased to 23,500 lots, and trading volume was 7,300 lots. Domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 300 tons to 50,200 tons [28] Strategy - With strong cost support and policy - induced supply disruptions, prices are expected to fluctuate [29]