宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年11月25日）-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both short - term and medium - term, the view on both coking coal and coke is to adopt an oscillatory approach. The short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trends are expected to be oscillatory and weak [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Production Data: As of the week ending November 21, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8 thousand tons. The combined daily average output of coke from downstream coking plants and steel mills was 108.89 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons [5]. - Demand Outlook: Although the profits of independent coking plants have improved significantly this week, the port market has already over - anticipated price cuts. There are doubts about the extent and sustainability of the improvement in downstream demand, so the positive factors on the demand side of coking coal are still insufficient [5]. - Supply Outlook: The easing of anti - involution expectations and the accelerated clearance of Mongolian coal have weakened the support on the supply side of coking coal. However, considering that coal mine production may decline after reaching the annual production target at the end of the year and the Politburo meeting in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [5]. Coke (J) - Market Price: The spot market of raw material coking coal is weak, and downstream steel mills are in the red. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port has dropped to 1470 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton lower than the flat - price [6]. - Supply and Demand: The latest data shows that both the supply and demand of coke have weakened slightly, and the fundamentals have not changed much. As of the week ending November 21, the combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 108.89 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 236.28 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 thousand tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66%, indicating that steel mills are in a large - scale loss situation [6]. - Market Trend: The strong supply - side expectations of coking coal have cooled down, dragging down the cost support of coke. The main futures contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillatory trend. Continued attention should be paid to the supply situation of coking coal [6].