甲醇：估值低位反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, the valuation of methanol prices has rebounded from a low level. The reasons are that the 1.65 million tons/year methanol plant of Iran's Sabalan has shut down over the weekend, and the concentrated short - positions left the market due to marginal positive factors [3]. - In the medium term, the methanol fundamentals still face pressure. Attention should be paid to the port inventory of methanol and the start - stop progress of Iranian plants [3][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of methanol's main 01 contract is 2,077 yuan/ton (up 73 from the previous day), the settlement price is 2,057 yuan/ton (up 42), the trading volume is 2,086,334 lots (up 1,000,738), the open interest is 1,312,680 lots (down 89,794), the number of warehouse receipts is 2,400 tons (up 2,400), and the trading volume is 429,055.7 million yuan (up 210,279.9 million yuan). The basis is - 24 (down 20), and the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) is - 121 (up 13) [1]. - Spot Market: The price in Inner Mongolia remains at 1,920 yuan/ton, the price in northern Shaanxi is 1,935 yuan/ton (up 20), and the price in Shandong is 2,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 2. Spot News - The methanol spot price index is 2033.52, up 11.62. The spot price in Taicang is 2053, up 53, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia is 1987.5, up 2.5. Among 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 14 cities saw price increases ranging from 2.5 to 75 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic methanol market followed the upward trend of futures. The short - position reduction of the 01 contract drove up the futures price, but the high inventory supply in the coastal area still exists, and the basis weakened as the price rose. Attention should be paid to the expected arrival of imported ships at some northern ports [3]. - The inland production areas showed a phased upward trend, supported by tightened spot volume, low upstream production - end inventory, and a small amount of external procurement by some olefins. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the restart of some methanol projects and the weakening of olefin external procurement [3].