宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The prices of major agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short, medium, and intraday terms [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. - Core Logic: U.S. soybean futures prices are oscillating at 1100 cents. The incremental Chinese purchases are lower than expected, offsetting the bullish impact of South American drought. Domestic oil mills' operating rate remains at a high of 65%, with high soybean meal inventory forcing traders to sell goods, pressuring spot prices. Feed mills only maintain an 8 - day rigid inventory, and pig losses suppress restocking willingness. The spot basis remains negative. The key psychological and technical support level for short - term soybean meal futures prices is 3000 yuan/ton [5]. - Attention Points: The realization of precipitation in South America in December and the adjustment of oil mills' operating rhythm [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6][7]. - Core Logic: The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues to accumulate as production recovers. The spot price of palm oil continues to decline slightly. The biodiesel policy of U.S. soybean oil is uncertain, and positive signals are released in China - Canada relations. The pressure on the palm oil industry chain continues to increase, and short - term palm oil futures prices continue to fluctuate weakly. The trend of palm oil is closely linked to U.S. soybean oil and the international oil and fat sector, and the biodiesel policy is a key variable [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil (Y) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly." The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6]. - Core Logic: Influenced by U.S. soybean cost support, U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mills' inventory [6].