铜：LME现货走强，支撑价格

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials have sent dovish signals, causing the market's expectation of the December policy to reverse, and the probability of an interest - rate cut has soared to 80% [1]. - High prices have significantly suppressed downstream demand, leading to a more than 10% month - on - month decline in China's copper product output in October 2025 [1]. - The global refined copper market had a deficit of 51,000 tons in September, compared with a surplus of 41,000 tons in August [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - Price and Price Changes: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,080 with a daily increase of 0.49%, and the night - session closing price was 86,040 with a decline of 0.05%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,782 with a daily increase of 0.03% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 202,995, a decrease of 12,770 from the previous day, and the open interest was 514,667, a decrease of 2,808. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 11,776, a decrease of 12,188, and the open interest was 328,000, an increase of 6,652 [1]. - Inventory and Related Ratios: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 43,816, a decrease of 5,974, and the inventory of LME Copper was 155,750, an increase of 725. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 3.55%, a decrease of 0.73% [1]. - Price Spreads: The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread changed from - 18.89 to 21.06, an increase of 19.95. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 300 to 78,400 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: Fed officials' dovish signals have changed the market's expectation of the December policy, and the probability of an interest - rate cut has reached 80% [1]. - Industry News: China's copper product output in October 2025 was 2 million and 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decline of more than 10%. Freeport plans to restart the Grasberg mine before July, and its copper and gold production in the next year is expected to be the same as this year [1]. 3.3 Import and Production Data - Import Data: In October 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. Imports of scrap copper were 196,607.27 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. Imports of refined copper were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32% [2]. - Production Data: Freeport Indonesia's cathode copper production target for 2026 is 478,000 tons. From January to October this year, Kazakhstan's refined copper production was 394,914 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].