原油：空单持有，并注意防范地缘扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and beware of geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of NYMEX crude oil futures, ICE Brent crude oil futures, and SC2601 crude oil futures all increased on November 25, 2025 [1] - The crude oil arbitrage windows in different regions show different states, with some being open and some closed, and the cost - advantage of different crude oils varies in different regions [2][4][6] - The trend strength of crude oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [13] Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil - NYMEX crude oil futures January contract rose $0.78/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%, to $58.84/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures 01 contract rose $0.81/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%, to $63.37/barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed up 4.20 yuan/barrel, a gain of 0.94%, to 449.80 yuan/barrel [1] 2. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed, indicating that US domestic crude oil has an overwhelming cost advantage over imported crude oil, strongly suppressing the import demand for light crude oil [2] - For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities. The arbitrage windows of Vasconia crude oil from Colombia and Mexican Maya crude oil are open, indicating that American heavy crude oil is still attractive in refineries with specific configurations [2] 3. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. North Sea Forties and African Saharan Blend are economical. In particular, Urals crude oil has a very high arbitrage value of +$11.57, driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into this region [4] 4. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - Similar to the Atlantic region, the arbitrage opportunities in this region are also differentiated. North Sea Forties and African Saharan Blend are economical, and Urals crude oil has a high arbitrage value, driving Russian crude oil to flow in [6] 5. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals crude oil has an absolute cost advantage in this region due to discounts, consolidating its position as the main supply source in the Mediterranean [8] 6. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, ESPO crude oil is very competitive in the Northeast Asian market, especially in complex refineries along the Chinese coast, with a strong market share and cost advantage [8] - For coking refineries such as Chinese independent refineries, there are significant opportunities. The arbitrage window of South American Napo crude oil is open, which may drive imports from Ecuador [10] 7. Key Market News - On November 24, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, clarifying China's principled stance on the Taiwan issue and emphasizing the importance of maintaining the post - war international order [11] - US President Trump plans to directly dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro, which may mean that the US will not immediately take missile strikes or direct military actions [11] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, a 2027 FOMC voter, supports a rate cut next month, believing that the risk of a sudden deterioration in the job market is greater and more difficult to control than a sudden rise in inflation [12] 8. Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]