银河期货每日早盘观察-20251125

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand relationships, while others are influenced by macro - economic policies, geopolitical factors, and cost - related elements [5][9][11]. - In the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures market is expected to rebound, but the performance is differentiated. The bond market lacks driving forces and is expected to be volatile in the short term [18][21][22]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties are in a state of supply - demand balance or slight imbalance, with prices showing different trends such as oscillation, strength, or weakness [24][27][31]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are oscillating within a range, and the double - coking market is paying attention to the switching of trading logic. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys are oscillating at the bottom [57][59][62]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are oscillating and waiting for data guidance. Copper prices are supported by the expectation of US interest rate cuts. Other non - ferrous metals also have their own price trends based on supply - demand and cost factors [67][71][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market is expected to rebound, with the strength depending on large - scale technology companies. The performance of different contracts is differentiated, and the trading volume and positions of most contracts have decreased [18][19][20]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [21]. Bond Futures - The bond market lacks driving forces and is expected to be volatile in the short term. The trading volume of treasury bond futures has increased slightly, and the yield of spot bonds has fluctuated slightly [22][23]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips with a small position in the T contract and being cautious about chasing up, and paying attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TF contract [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Supply still has pressure, and prices are oscillating. The international soybean market has a pattern of abundant production, and the domestic supply pressure is relatively large [24][26]. - Trading strategies include short - selling a small amount of far - month rapeseed meal contracts, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [27]. Sugar - International sugar prices have risen slightly, and domestic sugar prices are slightly stronger. The global main producing areas are increasing production, but the production in Brazil and India may be lower than expected. The domestic market is affected by factors such as imports and production costs [27][30]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips in the short term, conducting long January and short May arbitrage, and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. Oilseeds and Oils - The market continues to oscillate. The palm oil market has a high inventory and weak exports, but the production is expected to decrease in the future. The soybean oil market follows the overall trend, and the rapeseed oil market is expected to continue to destock [31][34]. - Trading strategies include short - term long - short operations and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is oscillating at a high level. The US corn market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the domestic corn market is affected by factors such as production areas and price differentials [35][37]. - Trading strategies include short - term long - short operations, conducting cash - and - carry arbitrage on the spread between January corn and starch, and waiting and seeing for options [38]. Live Pigs - The pressure of live pig slaughter continues to increase, and prices continue to decline. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists [38][39]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing, and using the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [41]. Peanuts - Peanut spot prices are stable, and the short - term market is oscillating at the bottom. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut meal is stable. The oil mill has adjusted the purchase price [41][43]. - Trading strategies include short - selling January peanuts on rallies, waiting and seeing for May peanuts, conducting reverse arbitrage on January - May peanuts, and selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [43]. Eggs - Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The inventory of laying hens is relatively high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [45][48]. - Trading strategies include going long on the January contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [49]. Apples - Demand is average, and apple prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory of apples is increasing, and the sales in the consumer market are in the off - season. The market is affected by factors such as imports and exports [50][53]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. The supply of new cotton is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [54][56]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [56]. Black Metals Steel - Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room for reducing hot metal. The supply - demand relationship of steel is improving, and the cost is supported. The hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [57][58]. - Trading strategies include maintaining an oscillating and slightly strong trend, conducting long - spread trading on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and waiting and seeing for options [59]. Double - Coking - The risk of price decline has been released, and attention should be paid to the switching of trading logic. The coking coal market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and policy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. - Trading strategies include gradually closing short positions, going long on dips after the market stabilizes, conducting reverse arbitrage on January/May coking coal, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62]. Iron Ore - A bearish approach is recommended. The supply of iron ore is relatively loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic terminal steel is expected to remain low. The price is expected to be weak at a high level [62][63]. - Trading strategies include short - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [64]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are oscillating at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are both decreasing, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [64][65]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using the strategy of selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Precious metals are oscillating and waiting for data guidance. The expectation of US interest rate cuts has increased, and the prices of gold and silver have risen slightly. The market is waiting for economic data to provide more clear directions [67][68][69]. - Trading strategies include holding long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [70]. Copper - Copper prices are supported by the expectation of US interest rate cuts. The supply of copper is expected to decrease, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [71][73]. - Trading strategies include holding long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton in the short term, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [74]. Alumina - Substantial production reduction has not been realized, and attention should be paid to the transfer of warehouse receipts. The supply of alumina is relatively stable, and the market is affected by factors such as long - term contracts and new production capacity [75][77]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading and arbitrage [78]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The expectation of US interest rate cuts is strengthening, and the price of Shanghai aluminum is stabilizing and rebounding. The supply - demand relationship of aluminum is relatively balanced, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong in the medium term [79][80]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips in the short term, paying attention to the narrowing of the price difference between East China and Central China in the spot market, and waiting and seeing for options [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - expectation has improved, and the price of aluminum alloy has rebounded with the price of aluminum. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the supply is tight. The price has certain support [81][84]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [84]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is decreasing, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to be lower than expected. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [84][86]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips with a small position, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. Lead - Lead prices are oscillating weakly within a range. The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [90][91]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [91]. Nickel - Production reduction stimulates the rebound of nickel prices, but inventory suppresses the upward space. The supply of nickel is affected by factors such as production reduction in Indonesia, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [91][94]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [94]. Stainless Steel - The supply and demand are both weak, and the price rebounds following the raw materials. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the cost is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [95][99]. - Trading strategies include short - term rebound trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options [98]. Industrial Silicon - Short - term buying on dips is recommended. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in the dry season, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be strong [100][101]. - Trading strategies include holding existing long positions and buying on dips [101]. Polysilicon - Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies. The market is affected by factors such as policy and demand. The price is expected to be volatile [100][102]. - Trading strategies include short - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [103].