EGPF早报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) is expected to trade in a range of [3700, 4250]. The contract under consideration is eg2601. The price of EG01 is under pressure due to weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and weak expectations of new capacity coming online in the fourth quarter. From October to December, inventory accumulation is evident, and there are expectations of new plant commissioning in the far - month. In the long - term, from 2026 - 2027, MEG may enter a new expansion phase. Given that oil - based plants are in loss and imports have an advantage in raw material prices, the absolute price range of MEG is anchored to the cost of the coal - based industry, around 3700 - 4245 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EGPF Morning Report - Price Range: MEG is expected to trade between 3700 - 4245 yuan, with the price range mainly determined by the cost of the coal - based industry [4]. - Industry Situation: In 2025, MEG capacity expansion is limited. In the long - term (2026 - 2027), there will be significant new capacity, including second - phase projects and new syngas - to - MEG projects. The value of MEG will likely show bottom - consolidation in the future [4]. - Inventory Situation: From October to December, inventory accumulation is significant. In October, the inventory increased by about 7 - 8 tons [4]. - Operation Suggestions for the Industry Chain - Refineries: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent unexpected risks. When inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell eg2601 at 4200 yuan with a 50% ratio [4]. - Traders: When purchasing according to the plan, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan to build inventory. When having inventory and seeking high - price sales, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. - End - users: When in need of polyester raw materials and worried about price increases, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan. When raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) [4]. - Coal - chemical Enterprises: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. 3.2 Upstream Price - Price Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025: Naphtha price CFR Japan increased from 562.00 to 563.00; methanol price in Taicang increased from 1989.00 to 2062.00; MEG outer - market price increased from 452.00 to 459.00; MEG East China spot self - pick - up price increased from 3844.00 to 3914.00; MEG import cost increased from 3842.93 to 3898.01; MEG import profit increased from 1.07 to 15.99; EG2601 futures price increased from 3808.00 to 3884.00; direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6278 to 6488; PF2512 closing price increased from 6148 to 6190 [6]. - Unchanged Prices:动力煤 (Inner Mongolia Q5500) remained at 630.00; ethylene in Northeast Asia remained at 730.00; MEG coal - based cost remained at 4816.00 [6]. 3.3 EGPF Process Profits - Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025: MEG oil - based profit increased from - 1192.63 to - 1123.87; MEG coal - based profit increased from - 972.00 to - 902.00; MEG ethylene - based profit increased from - 750.77 to - 676.69; MEG weighted profit increased from - 1104.06 to - 1038.67; direct - spun polyester staple fiber spot profit decreased from 114.13 to 75.88; short - fiber main - contract on - disk profit decreased from 32 to 31 [6]. 3.4 EG Basis, Spread, and Position - Basis and Spread Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025: EG1 - month basis decreased from 36.00 to 30.00; the difference in deep - pine short - rise increased from 130 to 298; PF12 - 1 month spread changed as shown in the data [6].