尿素：震荡回调

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, urea will fluctuate and decline. Spot trading is weak on weekends and Mondays, and the spot price is expected to weaken. With the strengthening of the basis, there will be selling pressure from spot and futures sources in the short - term market. Attention should be paid to the daily trading volume of the spot and the change in enterprise inventory this week [2][4] - Domestically, the fundamental pressure is high, but the downward driving force is weakened under policy regulation. In November, due to policy requirements for supply guarantee and profit restoration, urea will maintain high daily production, putting pressure on prices. However, export policy adjustments relieve the pressure, weakening the downward driving force [4] - In the fourth quarter, the domestic market is mainly a "buyer's market". The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, and if it breaks through 1700 yuan/ton, some Inner Mongolia factories' inventory may be released, causing selling pressure on the Northeast market. The lower support level is expected to be 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton, as the cost line of coal - based urea has risen and the export policy promotes the replenishment mentality of middle - stream enterprises [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market (01 Contract): The closing price was 1638 yuan/ton (down 16 from the previous day), the settlement price was 1637 yuan/ton (down 20), the trading volume was 18671980 lots (up 41915), the open interest was 232315 lots (down 10931), the number of warehouse receipts was 7570 tons (up 387), and the trading volume was 611.151 million yuan (up 131.138 million). The basis in Shandong was 2 (up 6), the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 128 (up 16), the basis of Dongguang - disk was 2 (up 16), and the spread between UR01 - UR05 was - 73 (up 1) [2] - Factory Prices: The prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Shanxi remained the same [2][3] - Supply - side Indicators: The operating rate was 83.75% with no change, and the daily output was 202510 tons with no change [3] Industry News - On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46400 tons (3.13% month - on - month) from the previous week. The price fluctuated upwards, and the demand for Northeast reserves increased, leading to inventory reduction in some enterprises. The inventory changes of enterprises in major production and sales areas varied. Provinces with inventory reduction include Hainan, Henan, etc., while those with inventory increase include Anhui, Gansu, etc. [2]