棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - month cotton contracts perform stronger than the forward contracts [1]. - The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2601 closed at 13,585 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.93%, and 13,620 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.26% increase. Its trading volume was 428,347 lots, an increase of 132,909 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 960,358 lots, an increase of 14,617 lots [1]. - CY2601 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a 1.77% increase, and 20,090 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase. Its trading volume was 24,063 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,700 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE cotton No.3 closed at 64.08 cents/pound yesterday with a 0.23% increase [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,240, a decrease of 4 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,294, an increase of 73 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, a decrease of 3 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 17 [1]. - Spot Price Data: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.83% from the previous day [1]. - The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,493 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan or 0.91% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.01% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Hebei was 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or - 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or - 0.02% from the previous day [1]. - The international cotton index M was 71.87 cents/pound, an increase of 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan or - 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton more than the previous day's spread [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 10 yuan less than the previous day's spread [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The spot trading of domestic cotton was stable with little change. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases with weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes were stable, and the prices were basically the same as those of point - price transactions. The spot sales basis was stable [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The prices of pure - cotton yarn were generally stable, and the overall market sales were sluggish. Recently, the high - count pure - cotton yarn sold relatively well, while the trading of other counts was slow, and the overall sales volume continued to decline. Some large spinning mills in the inland offered discounts to reduce inventory, and some small and medium - sized spinning mills switched to order - based production. There was no obvious inventory pressure, but they generally reported a decrease in orders. The market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with small - order transactions. Attention should be paid to the spring orders in the future [2]. - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].