铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has strengthened again, with the probability of a December rate cut rising to 80%. Major assets have continued to recover, including a rebound in US stocks, a return of gold prices to $4,100, and an increase in oil prices [2]. - A-share market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, and there is still no clear main line in the short term [2]. - The dovish remarks of Fed officials have boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. Geopolitical uncertainties have also increased the safe - haven demand for gold [3]. - The copper price is expected to remain volatile due to factors such as the continuous increase in US copper inventories, the Fed's possible interest rate cut, and the complex situation of the copper market at home and abroad [5][6]. - The aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate, supported by the Fed's dovish remarks, the improvement of risk preference, and the reduction of domestic inventories [7]. - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure [8][9]. - The casting aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate, supported by its own cost and relatively balanced supply - demand [10]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term, with the influence of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the balance between multiple and short factors [11]. - The lead price is expected to slow down its decline, and attention should be paid to the support around 17,000 and the change in LME inventories [12]. - The tin price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by the positive fundamentals of supply - demand [13]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the cooling of the industrial product sentiment and the contraction of supply and weak demand [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in a volatile manner due to the weakening of the long - position sentiment and the slowdown of the destocking rhythm [16][17]. - The nickel price may rebound due to the warming of the interest rate cut expectation and the cost support [18]. - The prices of soda ash and glass may rebound due to the positive signals from the technical side [19]. - The steel price is expected to fluctuate, with the increase in supply pressure and the weakening of downstream demand [20][21]. - The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate due to the large increase in arrivals and the weakening of demand [22]. - The double - coking price is expected to fluctuate, with limited demand support and stable supply [23]. - The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate, with the increase in soybean meal inventory and the influence of weather and procurement [24][25]. - The palm oil price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the strengthening of the inventory accumulation expectation and the influence of export demand [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has strengthened again. Fed Governor Waller said the labor market is weakening, and the probability of a December rate cut has risen to 80%. Major assets have continued to recover. Attention is paid to the US September retail and PPI data [2]. - Domestic: A - shares fluctuated widely and closed up. The trading volume shrank to 1.74 trillion. Growth stocks led the rise. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The money market is loose, and the bond market shows a differentiated trend. The Sino - US leaders' call exceeded expectations. Attention is paid to the October industrial enterprise profit and November PMI data [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver futures rebounded on Monday. Fed officials released dovish signals, enhancing the market's expectation of policy relaxation. Geopolitical uncertainties have also increased the safe - haven demand for gold. The market is waiting for key economic data to further judge the monetary policy trend, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to intensify [3][4]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper fluctuated around $10,700. The spot market trading was light. The LME inventory remained at 156,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory continued to rise to 409,000 tons. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December. The Tibet Yulong Copper Mine renovation project has been put into operation, and the cathode copper output is expected to increase significantly. The copper price is expected to remain volatile [5]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,375 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The LME closed at $2,813/ton, up 0.18%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory also decreased. The Fed's dovish remarks have re - heated the interest rate cut expectation, and the aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The spot price decreased. The inventory of the previous period increased. The market is under supply pressure, and the alumina price continues to be weak [8][9]. 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,635 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spot price was flat. The price stopped falling due to cost support and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [10]. 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was volatile. The spot market trading was average. The social inventory decreased slightly. The Fed's support for a December rate cut and the Sino - US call have boosted market risk preference. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [11]. 3.8 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead was stable and then declined. The spot market trading was normal. The social inventory decreased slightly. The supply is regionally tight, and the cost support is relatively rigid. The lead price is expected to slow down its decline [12]. 3.9 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose. The social inventory increased slightly, and the refinery's operating rate decreased slightly. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation has boosted market risk preference. The tin price is expected to remain at a high level due to positive fundamentals [13]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon was narrowly volatile. The spot price decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price is expected to be weakly volatile [14][15]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price was weakly volatile. The spot price decreased. The inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The long - position sentiment weakened, and the price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [16][17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price was strong. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation has boosted market risk preference. The social inventory decreased, but the terminal market has not improved significantly. The nickel price may rebound due to cost support [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash was volatile, and the main contract of glass was strong. The glass production capacity decreased, and the inventory increased. The soda ash production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The prices of both may rebound due to positive technical signals [19]. 3.14 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rebounded. The spot market trading volume increased. The cost of electric arc furnaces decreased, and the profit increased. The supply pressure increased, and the downstream demand weakened. The steel price is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rebounded. The port spot trading volume increased. The arrival volume increased significantly, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the iron ore price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [22]. 3.16 Double - Coking - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated. The spot price was stable. The coal mine production was affected by the weather, and the demand from downstream steel mills is weak. The double - coking price is expected to fluctuate [23]. 3.17 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal contract fell slightly, and the rapeseed meal contract rose slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress is about 80%. The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased, and the soybean meal inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory is low, and the rapeseed meal supply is tight. The prices are expected to fluctuate [24][25]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil contract fell. The prices of other oils also decreased. The Malaysian palm oil export demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strengthened. The palm oil price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27].