交易所限仓VS现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续引领新能源金属走向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current situation of new energy metals is that the exchange's position limit policy and the tight supply - demand in reality coexist, with lithium carbonate leading the trend of new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's measures on lithium carbonate have cooled investors' optimistic sentiment, but in the long run, the supply of silicon may shrink, and the long - term supply - demand of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is still over - supply pressure, and the silicon price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, due to the repeated policy expectations, the price will oscillate at a high level. For lithium carbonate, the trading sentiment has cooled, and the price will oscillate at a high level [2][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - View: There is still over - supply pressure, and the silicon price will oscillate. The spot price has slightly decreased. The domestic inventory has decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, with market inventory increasing by 0.5% and factory inventory decreasing by 1.8%. As of October 2025, the monthly production increased by 7.5% month - on - month and decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to October decreased by 16.7% year - on - year. In October, the export volume decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative export from January to October decreased by 1.2% year - on - year. In October, the new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month and decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support phase [6]. - Main Logic: The anti - involution in the organic silicon industry has affected market sentiment. The supply in the southwest will decrease due to the dry season, and the northwest supply will fluctuate slightly. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon may decline, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The social inventory is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of warehouse receipt re - registration [6]. - Outlook: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken, and the inventory pressure may increase. In the short term, the price will oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - View: Due to the repeated policy expectations, the price will oscillate at a high level. The N - type re -投料's transaction price is stable, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, the export and import volumes have decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October has increased by 39.5% year - on - year [7]. - Main Logic: The supply will decrease in November due to the dry season, and the long - term supply may be restricted by anti - involution policies. The demand may weaken in November as the photovoltaic installation has declined since the second half of the year, and the downstream demand is showing signs of weakness. Overall, there is still pressure on supply and demand, but the price will likely maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy can boost the price, but due to the large inventory pressure, the price will show a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - View: The trading sentiment has cooled, and the price will oscillate at a high level. On November 24, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.59%, the total position decreased by 20,819 lots, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton, the average price of spodumene concentrate decreased by 18 dollars/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 338 lots [9][10]. - Main Logic: The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline from November to December. The supply is growing but faces ore shortages. The demand is currently good, and speculative demand may emerge when the price drops. The social inventory is decreasing, and the short - term balance depends on the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on price dips [11]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price will oscillate at a high level [11]. 3.2行情监测 No specific content provided for analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 24, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the special index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index, PPI Commodity Index) and the plate index (New Energy Commodity Index), showed different degrees of increase, with the New Energy Commodity Index having a daily decline of 0.35%, a 5 - day decline of 0.90%, a 1 - month increase of 4.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.66% [51][52].